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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (18122)	4/5/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

CONTEST SO FAR: (L) = Long (S) = Short Previous Contest Winners Steve............>L DOW, L NE Michael Happel...>L OSX, L MDCO jbe..............>L NAS, L NE pz...............>S DOW, L NE mph..............>S DOW, L NE Paul L...........>S DOW, L VRC P&F..............>S DOW, L MDCO PuddleGlum.......>S DOW, L CXIPY SeaDust..........>L NAS, L NE ron P............>S DOW, L ESV Snewts..........>S DOW, L ESV Chas.............>S NAS, L NE Diamond H*.......>L DOW, L NE

To: waverider who wrote (18122)	4/5/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Diamond, it helps to keep in mind that the drillers are always trading in short term cycles. It does not matter if the sector goes up or down or flat for 6 months. It still trades in many short term cycles. A visit to a historical chart may speak a thousand words here. I'm not sure what you want to illustrate with CDG but there were external forces at play at that time. Oil was trading at $13 and if OPEC did not interfere oil could be at $10 today. The right thing to do at that point was to cut CDG at $35. The doubly right thing to do was to buy CDG back even at a higher price than $35 when the the situation turned around and the whole sector began to rally because of new hope (OPEC intervention). Hindsight is 20/20 but those who decided to cut CDG at $35 did the right thing. The difficult part is to buy it back should situation turn around, which it did. That's why trading require more discipline than techniques. Another case in point - Ron's stochastics was perfect from January to last week. From his own admittance he did not profit as much as he wanted because he lacked the discipline of following through his own method. But if he did he definitely would have doubled his profit by now. On the other hand, most mo-mo tech stocks tend to go to one extreme without much pause and even when there are pauses it tends not to last long. And then they reverse. The disk drive stocks are characteristics of this boom-bust cycle. When the cycle turns, one has to get out at whatever losses or else the losses can multiply! I learned my lesson there. Sold SEG at $40. Sold QNTM at ~$30. Sold WDC at $25. Sold RDRT at $20. All except SEG were big time losers for me. If I were to hold on, I would have doubled my losses. CANSLIM helps during the up phase and down phase, whichever direction one wants to play. However, as in any investment, no one should ignore fundamentals. It is hard to know the swing of the business fundamentals because things are moving at cutting edge speed. If there is an announcement of an upcoming earning short fall, it is typically the first bad sign with many more to follow. Therefore, CANSLIM no longer applies when there is a sudden price drop beyond what is typical of a normal correction. The 8% you mentioned is an arbitrary number. For some it could be 10% or 15%. Found a great quote by the honorable Rob S tonight that applies to OPMRF: "The shorts who are looking to find a company that is propelled chiefly on vaporware are due for a disappointment. But investors who think the stock will sustain a perpetual flight to the stratosphere are also in for a dose of reality." - he was talking about ETEL.