To: Exacctnt who wrote (27274 ) 4/8/1998 12:06:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
Bob, Congrats on owning MSFT so long, but this answer is more to your general hypothesis. I think the entire retirement money thing is being used as an explanation of soemthing that happens every market cycle: relatively huge sums of money come into the market when stocks have gone up a lot. This time, that flow of money has been helped by artificially low interest rates, accounting tricks that increase reported eps, a Fed that prints money so fast it is de-foresting the world, and Alan Greenspan's willingness to do anything to save the banking system in The United States. Add to that big problems in Japan, which was once the largest stock market in dollar trading terms, lethargy in Europe, and bond market yields and spreads that would make a speed freak yawn, and you have people with cash who see a no-risk way to double their money quickly. However, Wall Street promoters aren't stupid and they are using this cash flow as a way to bring out new stocks and new mutual funds that would not have been brought public in more sober periods of time. A lot of savvy investors are aware of the lack of quality out there, and that is why we see valuations of blue chips at such silly levels. So we have an odd market where some small and mid cap cos are actually cheap, and most "growth" stocks are priced well beyond their growth potential and any possible positive return in a practical dividend discount monel. I guess it just comes down to the fact that this manic bull does not look that much different than previous ones. How long can it go on? As long as the majority of investors keep insisting the emperor is wearing new clothes despite the loudness of the bank playing "The Theme From 'The Stripper.'" -g- MB