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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52279)	4/7/1998 3:52:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Imagine it's the 1980s, and you are Japanese...... You invest in Japanese stocks because those are the companies you understand, and it's hard to get information about foreign companies, and you don't want to take the currency risk. I won't tell you whether it's 1984 or 1989 because that would spoil the thought experiment. Imagine that you are smart enough to realize that asset prices have become disconnected from real worth. How do you invest? One solution might be to go to cash. But there might be years of further asset inflation ahead, before the crash. You think about shorting the most absurdly overvalued stocks, the ones that are most hyped and at the highest PEs, but those are exactly the ones that keep on becoming even more absurdly overvalued. What do you do? In retrospect, the correct strategy was to be very selective: buy the highest quality companies, the globally competitive multinationals (like Toyota). Buy only companies with pristine balance sheets and unassailable franchises. Buy only when the PE was at or below the expected growth rate. Sell as soon as the asset became overvalued, and search for whatever quality companies are still available at a reasonable price. Don't try to make money, don't do what the crowd is doing, ignore the most widely followed experts. Just try to avoid losing money, that's Rule Number One. Make sure there isn't too much air underneath the stocks you buy. Imagine the worst possible future, and ask. "can this company survive it?" If the answer is no, or even maybe, look elsewhere. Don't worry about diversifying, because by 1989 there will be very very very few companies that meet the above criteria. OK. Imagine it's 1998, and you are American......What do you invest in? INTC?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52279)	4/7/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: MONACO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul,,,what is Hot Plug PCI technology (is Intel involved)and how does Intel figure into the Y2K problem??....M

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52279)	4/7/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, does the ibm deal signal a fundamental change. AMD alone would have been no problem, but with big blue behind them ? 209.1.112.252. note the following point in the article above, is this real or sander's BS "Meanwhile, AMD's manufacturing continues to improve. The company has reached a yield of close to 50 percent on chips based on the advanced 0.25 production process, a vast improvement over last year's levels. Importantly, the production is taking place at AMD's large Austin, Texas, chip plant--not its smaller production line in Sunnyvale, California. AMD is achieving nearly 100 percent yields on 266-MHz K6 chips."

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52279)	4/7/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: Pullin-GS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Some TA from yesterday's close: First off I'll state the obvious. INTC is trading below the 21, 50, and the 200EMA. The short-term trend is down. What little support INTC had at 74 was lost today, with a close at the day's low. Today's losses occurred on a day whose volume was a hair higher than the 21Day-Volume-EMA (avg is 16.2MM). It looks like a gap down in the AM based on the day's trading activity alone. Intel had a weak attempt at closing the pre-warning gap and failed. The trend is down, and I see no reason to think it will correct in the next few trading days. On 3/27 INTC attempted to close the 3/5/98 gap and failed quickly as it pegged the up-side of the lower Bollinger Band envelope. The price trend fell from about 80 to today's close of 73 7/8 (8% in 6 trading days). Bollinger has support pegged at 66.5, which is consistent with a trading range INTC has seen in the not-to-distant past in mid-December. I have figured that there is 306MM shares of downside-overhead that INTC will need to take out in order for it to see 67 again. This will take a number of days...but the trend has been established, and ASIA flu is just starting to go around again in the tech sector. MACD Histogram has trended down off a peek of .345 4 days ago and is just hovering above zero at .075. If tomorrow brings more selling, as I expect it will, MACD will cross over zero on the down side, signaling sell/short on many terminals. This is bearish. RSI is trending down strongly and closed today at 37. Selling tomorrow will bring it below 30, signaling sell/short on many terminals (30/70 crossover alert). This is very bearish. Bostian's Accumulation/Distribution had a bearish crossover 2 days ago, with a bearish trend confirmation the following day. In the last 6 months this has only happened twice...each time resulting in an immediate (within several days) trend reversal. The last time INTC saw this it was trading at 91 1/2 on March 2nd. The Directional System is currently trending on the short side, with -DI above +DI. ADX is trending slightly down and is not below both -DI/+DI. This signals that the current trend is still going and not to expect a reversal in the shorterm. An Easterner's TA point of view: Yesterdays Doji-Star on the Candle-stick chart warned of an impending trend reversal from the short-term lateral trend to a down trend. This was confirmed in a strong way by a Long-Black-Body today, that closed almost 3 points off from the Doji. The fact that the stock opened near it's high and closed at it's low only magnifies this candle. This combination of bearish indicators has the Eastern chartists calling their brokers as we speak. Very bearish. I show allot of selling coming in over the past few days, and given the current market conditions and out-of-favor press INTC has received recently I am very cautious about taking on a long position at this time. Good luck to all.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (52279)	4/7/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick	Respond to of 186894

Paul, I got taken in by sloppy definition of yield. See below. Burt ALL, re:<Kumar of Piper Jaffray said 100 % yield on K6-266, 75% yield n K6-300> What he means that for the chips that work, they all work at 266 MHz and 75% of them work at 300 MHz. By saying "the yield problems are fixed," he means that somewhere around 50% of the possible chips are functional. This is a higher yield percentage than there ever was on the 0.35 process and there's more than twice as many K6's per wafer as there were. Petz