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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (6472)	4/7/1998 4:49:00 PM
From: the Druid	Respond to of 18691

SpaceCadet, Thank you for your input. I have been baffled as well as hurt in the pocket books by insisting on my "objective judgements" about these internet stocks. I agree with you that an advanced degree and an understanding of the technology at hand turns out to be a hinderance to profit in this case.

To: space cadet who wrote (6472)	4/7/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

SC: what can I tell you. i read the Barron's piece myself, posted it here. IMO your post is one of the best I ever read. Will print it and frame. Me, I was again about 4-5 weeks too early. Pancho FWIW had a 3.5% return today, following a 2.6% yesterday...Hope it stays my way....

To: space cadet who wrote (6472)	4/7/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: Allan F	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

RE Overeducated Stock Pickers I am beginning to whole heartedly agree. A few weeks ago I came across Maynard Keyes' famous statement about buying what the average guy thinks the average guy is going to buy. It struck me I am horrible at running with the herd. I am an engineer who owns 3 diesel vehicles (Volvo 240, Jetta, Rabbit), despise debt, hate government, and prefer reading to TV/Hollywood. How this bodes for my stock picking prowess is not good. -Allan

To: space cadet who wrote (6472)	4/7/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Respond to of 18691

space cadet, - Thank you for your most insightful and correct views. Thanks also to Pancho for posting the original study article. It is great food for thought, and a lesson everyone invested today should learn and understand. On an attempted objective ex post facto test, I guessed 46 would be the number. Now attempting to retrain brain from the acquired feedback. Thanks again to you both. MT PS - space cadet, - where do I sign up for your newsletter?

To: space cadet who wrote (6472)	4/8/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: poodle	Respond to of 18691

Space Cadet <<I can't believe how simple the point is and how long it took me to learn that.>> I can't believe, but looks like we are (were?) in the same trap. "This valuation is insane"... Oops. 50% more. Who told us there is any valuation? "Don't bet against the tape" is old, "don't try to be smarter than others" is much older. Too bad we are learning that hard way.(Why you did not post year ago?) Classic, serious book about the market can't teach you that way. Some relatively new,"for the beginners", may. I wouldn't call investing public stupid or absolutely ignorant.. Hard to believe that stupid ignorant people have considerable amount of $. "Investors" are busy: job, kids, house, cars, pain here and here etc. etc. etc. No time to analyze. They do know what the P/E is (at least all I have talked to). They do not know today numbers. Too bad. But they send their money to professional portfolio managers. Managers are not all stupid, not at all. (Well, published average age of 28 YO ... I have nothing against 28, but given that some of them are 56...) Anyway, the majority of them do understand the system. But what can they do? Clients are pushing money into the market. Managers do realize that prices are insane, and what? Some of them made "educated" decisions. Where they are? ? (Money managers should be all seek these days.) So public is thinking that money are managed by professionals; but real decisions are made by completely ignorant public; but public is ignorant (partially) because they hired professionals to manage money... BTW, not only engineers suffered form "excessive knowledge". Have you noticed this correlation: quality of education is down, market is up? Have a good night.