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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxwell who wrote (31492)	4/8/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Maxwell	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1571924

Option Players: Looks like AMD will be in trading range for awhile and close somewhere between 25 to 27 1/2 at April expiration. This is an excellent opportunity to get some Jan. 99 options. Why? 1) The worst news that could happen to AMD is over. Q2 AMD may breakeven. My calculation indicates AMD will ship about 3 to 3.5M K6 in Q2 and will be slightly profitable based upon the $700M breakeven revenue. See Message 3996298 2) Yield is fixed. Yield on 0.25um is spectacular and ASP is good about $200 for 0.25um. 3) K6-3D chompers will release next month and will cause great excitement in the PC community. 4) AMD will penetrate to laptop market with K6-266 and K6-300 soon. 5) AMD will make good money in Q3 and great money in Q4. 6) K7 is on schedule and will be backed by CPQ, IBM, and MSFT. K7 will be demoed in Nov. 7) Dresden fab first move in tool is in MAY and will risk starts in early 1999. Today AMD is down because of bad earnings and no annoucement of IBM investment. Furthermore alot of profit takers who bought at low 20s. You will see AMD climb to 30s by the time AMD announces K6-3D. At that time guys like Kumar will tell you that 0.25um production is going well and that AMD has made millions of K6. Stock will then fly. I calculated that you should be able to make at least 100% in returns if you buy Jan 30 C, VVVAF, and sell it when AMD at 35. Just bookmark this post and tell me how I do a few months from now. To back up of what I said I am currently holding about 200 contracts of Jan. calls. Maxwell