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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (18509)	4/8/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Jeffrey Beckman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BOP fans- TC2000 showed plenty of green tonight, more than I can remember. Eight well-known stocks of this sector showed 100%-sized green bars. Another 11 were over 50%. Overall, 25 with green bars, 4 with yellow bars, and only one with a red bar. Deep, shallow, land, Fabs, equipment, large cap, they're all BOP'n! Jeff

To: waverider who wrote (18509)	4/8/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: iandiareii	Respond to of 95453

In yet another big money endorsement of this sector's strong fundamentals, R&B Falcon's $1.1 billion debt placement went off beautifully. Tonight's online WSJ (story will print tomorrow) commented that FLC's lightning ability to do this deal amounted to "its own star turn" on a day that also featured a huge S. Korean offering. In fact, FLC's deal led the story. But -- from the same article -- where's this person been? "I was surprised they were able to do a billion-dollar deal with oil at $15.90 a barrel," said one investor who passed on the Rule 144a offering. "But I hear some value equity investors like oil drillers" on the theory that all of the bad news about the oil sector has already been discounted. So (s)he's just now hearing about this "theory"...yikes, maybe the better question is where've I been?

To: waverider who wrote (18509)	4/8/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 95453

Diamond, am glad to see you opened up to see Richard's side of the story. You know where I stand on this. Doug's comment about a sure profit two years out is also too prophetic and arrogant. The bottom dwelling status of the drillers since its decline in November versus other sectors in the overall market I believe is totally unexpected by 90% of the people who own drillers stocks because of the fundamentals. Those who bought PKD a year ago may have lost money. PKD was my first purchase in the driller back in Fall 1996 and I remember I paid 10 3/4 for it. PKD is trading less than 10 3/4 today. Buying and holding may not work out long term. PKD 1 1/2 years ago was like GW 1/2 year ago. Look how tough is it for GW to climb above $5 and all these time it has to work off its high PE just to par with its peers. How about CDG? Maybe only a small profit from a year ago. CDG was on a tear a 1 1/2 year ago. What I'm trying to say is it does matter which company one buys. No matter how much research one does, time changes and the company may not perform as well as some other company in the same group. By holding a laggard long term is a sure way to get hurt because there you watch opportunities after opportunities pass by and other drillers go up and you stock is still stuck! That's why switching once in a while makes sense. That's why trading in and out of the numerous short term cycles makes sense. I have been a driller investor for 1 1/2 year and I have never held onto a single company for more than three months. Yet I have never missed any opportunity. Have I? I rode them all the way up and I missed some of the toughest falls twice (once in Jan 97 and once in Nov 97) because I was out at the right time. It wasn't as much luck as the discipline to regularly take profit. Trading works but it can be stressful especially at the beginning. I bought ESV today. Will ESV become CDG for the next year? No one knows. When ESV pops for a 15% gain I'll start watching how other drillers are doing and will begin setting up sell order. I know ESV's fundamentals look great. I'll also take profit without hesitation after a nice runup. I'll find another opportunity or hold onto cash if everything is overbought by then. Successful investors become wealthy because they sell too soon. If I take 5% profit each month by doing 12 trades, my compounded annual profit gain is 71%. If one were to time the short term cycle correctly (and each month has at least one up-down cycle), a disciplined 5% profit each month is a conservative way to build long term wealth. Think about it - how easy is it to hold onto one stock and it gains over 71%? If one is lucky to hold onto a company that outperforms others, then great. But if one has a portfolio of drillers it is going to be very tough to produce a 71% annual gain. I hope people can see this side of capital preservation approach to investing. <TA> As far as the recent rally and then decline is concerned, I think RIG and NE are the only two drillers that have not closed their trading gaps. That is a clear sign of near term strength. Anyone has any other drillers they know which have not closed their recent trading gaps?

To: waverider who wrote (18509)	4/8/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

Diamond, He's 31, but hey.....the man (Richard)DOES have a point. I've been much more successful trading this sector since the "oil crash". ALL my LT-hold positions (GLM, RON, UFAB) are down, and I'm trying to get them profitable by selectively selling calls at strategic points in the cycle. That's working....slowly. However, all the trading positions have profits NOW IN MY POCKET. They are easy to do (with pointers from people here...) and commissions are cheap. I think a balance between the two strategies is appropriate for those willing to accept the responsibilies and hassle/risk of ST trading. Regards, PS: For this reason, I sold NE today. I like my profit over the last 3 weeks. It was awesome. Will it continue to go up? Probably. Believe me, I will be back in at the appropriate time.