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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/8/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: jbe	Respond to of 95453

Think about it - how easy is it to hold onto one stock and it gains over 71%? If one is lucky to hold onto a company that outperforms others, then great. But if one has a portfolio of drillers it is going to be very tough to produce a 71% annual gain. True - but if you had bought Core (CRLBF) -- which, of course, is not a "driller" -- you would have had a 195% gain, and without all the hassle of trading back & forth! But who would have predicted it? Which brings me back to my old question: any theories/explanations as to why this particular company got through the recent Time of Trouble almost unscathed? And why is it the top-ranked oil service (as distinct from drillers) stock (5 analysts -- all "strong buy"), despite its weak points (e.g., high debt)?

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/8/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

Thean, do you put all your investment funds into one stock when you make each trade? I'm assuming you are talking about a 71% return on your entire portfolio. How do you protect yourself against a disastrous company specific announcement? Maybe stop loss orders, but stops won't help much if the stock price gaps over your stop. By the way, there are many unfilled gaps in the sector, including several drillers -- including: ATW, CDG, PDE, PTEN, VRC.

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/8/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: RGinPG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<TA> Stochastics / Bollinger Bands --> Bullish IMO The only negative indicator I've seen is the bullishness on this thread, a sure formula for disaster. But I must add my 2 cents, I can't help it, the stochs and the BBands look bullish to me. Many of the weaker performers are well into the oversold range now, some beginning to flatten out and look poised for a buy signal within the next 2 to 3 trading days I predict (unless they just fall straight down, but flat to slightly higher action is a much more likely scenario I think). rgdoczzz.home.texas.net The stronger performers are sticking in the overbought range. Things are playing out predictably so far. When I get some buy signals on the weak performers, I imagine all the stocks in the sector will rise, (I think the stronger stocks will rise faster than the laggards, but this is a contentious issue. We shall see.) I also see a lot of potential bouncing off the lower BBands rgdoczzz.home.texas.net If I hadn't bought back in in a panic last week, I would be accumulating over the next 2 to 4 trading days to get back up to 125%. But I do have some buying power left. So the question is, what to buy. PKD looks very compelling at these levels Thean: I have earnings growth numbers for all the stocks I follow at: rgdoczzz.home.texas.net ESV looks superior to the land drillers in this arena too. Of course, earnings growth is what fuels lower future P/E's . My concern is that there must be a reason (other than what we already know) why this stock is weak.

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/8/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 95453

>>How about CDG? Maybe only a small profit from a year ago. CDG was on a tear a 1 1/2 year ago.<< Don't remind me. >>What I'm trying to say is it does matter which company one buys. No matter how much research one does, time changes and the company may not perform as well as some other company in the same group.<< Yes, the driller's fundamentals were fantastic back in November (and even better now). I guess the thing many of us missed was the fact that with the run up the stock had, it was very vulnerable to a pullback. All it needed was an excuse. The price of oil did that. However, if one were to have bought CDG a year ago for a 3-5 year run, this recent downturn MAY very well have been just a bump in the road. From my experience, I find that I can often make one correct decision (to sell), but making two is difficult (when to get back in). >>By holding a laggard long term is a sure way to get hurt because there you watch opportunities after opportunities pass by and other drillers go up and you stock is still stuck! That's why switching once in a while makes sense.<< Agreed. What I take exception to is the constant trading mentality that has folks in and out of positions so much that only their broker makes money. If you've got a system that controls that, great. >>If I take 5% profit each month by doing 12 trades, my compounded annual profit gain is 71%. If one were to time the short term cycle correctly (and each month has at least one up-down cycle), a disciplined 5% profit each month is a conservative way to build long term wealth.<< The big question here is IF you can time it properly. BUT those frequent events that take down a stock overnight can wipe out those little 5% gains pretty fast. Holding long term can smooth that type of thing out. Great dialogue Thean. Hope we both make enough money to buy each other an expensive drink when...

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/9/1998 1:35:00 AM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

fgii looks to have the strongest chart of any OSXer right now. Closed the gap and moving up on strong volume. RIG & NE held their ground but those that bought fgii on the dip at 28 should be happy.http://207.95.154.130/chart/default.asp?period=120&time=day&chart=candle&chart1=ma&volume=y&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=fgii

To: Thean who wrote (18514)	4/9/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Respond to of 95453

Thean, I think that trading can be a legitimate strategy, particularly if you are disciplined around preserving your capital. As others have pointed out, you may still fall prey to the catastrophic surprises which appear unexpectedly. Of course, if you can buy low and hang on, good companies will give you a dramatic ride that eventually becomes tax advantaged. If you bought ESV at current prices and it simply returns to its former high you would make 79% profit on it. good luck, Baird