To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (42970 ) 4/8/1998 8:25:00 PM From: djane Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
Lack of bandwidth becomes nonissue in 1999. Forbes.com article [I'll put this "analysis" in my tickler] Excerpt: "Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Internet analyst Mary Meeker predicts that the "golden age" of the Internet will come in 1999, when lack of bandwidth becomes a nonissue, and as a result consumers will be getting full-motion video and audio over the net. By Om Malik David Filo and Jerry Yang, twentysomething cofounders of search engine Yahoo! (YHOO), are unlikely to forget Apr. 12, 1996. That day, the Stanford University Ph.D. dropouts became instant millionaires following Yahoo!'s initial public offering. Now, two years later, a project that was once a hobby for them, has reached another milestone. With a $4 billion market capitalization, Yahoo! has become the newest member of the Forbes 500s. Not bad for a company that incurred $23 million in losses last year, on sales of a mere $67.4 million. To boot, the Internet company is ranked at 475, above the likes of relative old-timers Novell (NOVL) and Apple Computer (AAPL), which each had 1997 sales in excess of $5 billion. Yahoo! is not the only upstart. Another debutante is Denver, Colo.-based Qwest Communications (QWST), which is building a high-speed fiber-optics network for voice, data and Internet communications. Qwest, at number 278 went public last June. In 1997, it lost $7 million on sales of $231 million--its current market value: $8 billion. Another newcomer this year is At Home (ATHM), a Redwood City, Calif.-based company that offers high-speed Internet access to consumers using cable networks. At Home went public last July at $10.50. It now trades at $34.25, giving the company a market value of $4.5 billion. The success of Yahoo!, Qwest and At Home is a sign of the times: The Internet is a winning theme on a booming Wall Street. At least, compared with granddaddies like Intel Corp. (INTC), which had to wait five years after it went public before making the list in 1976. (See Times they are a-changin') Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp., says the current madness for Internet stocks is quite similar to the huge premiums punters paid for automobile stocks earlier this century. "You are betting on a revolution not a simple evolution," he says. This revolution may not be televised but it will be broadcast. With the number of personal computers likely to increase to about 131 million by year 2000, more than 58% of Americans will be online, thus boosting online opportunities, analysts say. "The Internet and its promise are looking a lot better than we had initially thought," adds Johnson. Lise Buyer, director of the technology group at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in an interview with the Tool (Click here to read the interview) warned that investors need to be very prudent, because this is a fast-changing business. Today's stars could be corporate roadkill tomorrow. Take browser software maker Netscape (NSCP), which went public in August 1995. Within weeks, the stock of the Mountain View, Calif.-based company hit a high of $75 a share, but within a year the stock price crumbled under pressure from Microsoft's rival browser. Netscape is now trading at $19 a share. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Internet analyst Mary Meeker predicts that the "golden age" of the Internet will come in 1999, when lack of bandwidth becomes a nonissue, and as a result consumers will be getting full-motion video and audio over the net. This will make the business models of companies like Yahoo! and At Home more compelling. But until then, investors will have to live on promises. c 1998 Forbes Inc. Terms, Conditions and Notices