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To: Candle stick who wrote (9493)4/8/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Guardian  Read Replies (7) | Respond to of 27307
 
IMHO you all miss the point. I have followed all of the opinions and they all ( and humbly, perhaps, mine) ignore what is happening. we are in the equivalent of the industrial revolution when no past rules apply, including the traditional valuation paradigm. it simply doesn't matter. think of yourself in a stock market of the past where electricity and telephone were being introduced. where were the profits when all that was happening was the laying of cables (investment). as jim crowe of LVLT said so eloquently, the ones with the vision don't have the capital, and the one's with the capital don't get it. it's all coming together and the collective wisdom of the marketplace knows it, albeit not without the expected violatility.

it ultimately is a contest between the intuitive investor and the pragmatic investor. who will win is destined to be those who can see the future. invest in the past or present or invest in the future. the fact of the matter is that the future will overtake us all. the question is who of us will be running with it and who against. and who do you suppose will be the financial winners? this is not a game for traders although there is much $$$ to be made in the violatility that the wave of the future leaves in its wake. it is a game for visionaries who have the stomach for a rough ride. the signals are not the same as the twenty's when exuberance got the better of everyone. then there was no substance underlying the stock market rise. this is by no means similar. this is substance.

tomorrow, YHOO may tank and take all internet with it, or it may shoot to new highs with all its followers. it is a bellweather by any standard. but beware, the basic equation is left unchanged. the internet in concept is changing the world and the world knows it. that's what is driving the internet and telco stocks. no asian flue is going to derail that for long.

we are in a once in a millenium transition to which few investors/traders have ever been privy. to ignore that basic truth and to debate the daily ups and downs as if they were the ultimate truth is financial folly. it is not momentum; it is the momentum we universally know to be the future.

IMHO it will not behave like any other animal of the market you've ever witnessed.



To: Candle stick who wrote (9493)4/9/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: Eddy Hagan  Respond to of 27307
 
you say 90% buy and hold will be wiped out.stocks like yhoo may be overvalued, but not all.i agree with you that there will be a bear market in the near future.stocks like yhoo will be in the teens and blue chips will be down substantially.however i am 26 and have been investing in this mkt for 6 years now; i am a buy and hold investor for my core holdings; and i also speculate on tech stocks like dell/synt/msft.only holding them for weeks at a time. your rationale that when the bear mkt comes buy and hold investors will be wiped out, is somewhat true, in my opinion (as well as yours?) novice baby boomer investors will sell once they see their near retirement money vaporized! i am a buy and hold investor, the big difference is i have realized a nice gain on my investments and most importantly have a much longer time span on my holdings, than the novice "45-50 yr old investors" who just got out their savings acct to try to play the mkt!



To: Candle stick who wrote (9493)4/9/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: wiley murray  Respond to of 27307
 
Hi Candlestick

Very good summary. I have also leaned to the bear side over the years. I am using TA FA and intuition to make my picks. Can you share what yardstick(s) you use to make your short picks? Thanks.