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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jgercke who wrote (1652)	4/11/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

I'm not in this to wait 3 years either. Uh-oh, but some of us who are willing are starting to sniff around this carcass. I'm more than willing to hold three years with good reason. I'm just getting my feet wet here, but the continued sky high multiple of Dell is completely incongruent with the valuation of Adaptec. I've still got some investigating to do, but management has proven itself as repetitively competent in the past. Who can blame them for selling at $50/share? Sounds like a wise decision to me. Director Moore and Officer Gourley each sold significant parts of their holdings in Jan and Feb in the mid-20's. I hate to see this type of stuff, but if it didn't happen there would be no value stocks. Mike

To: jgercke who wrote (1652)	4/14/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: slob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

ADPT's PEG valuation! I think that PEG is a very good indicator for growth companies but fails when the market shifts away from the product. I'm very interested in finding accurate valuation methods for fundamentally sound companies with decreasing revenue / earnings. All help is welcome. As for ADPT's valuation,I would suggest that you study S3 back in late 96 early 97. S3 was king of the Graphics controllers, however, it was clear that the market was shifting to 3D graphics. Look now at S3 and you'll find a company that is struggling to find its direction. IMHO ADPT is at a similar crossroads. It seems to me that the high end products will end up going to 1394 and who needs SCSI for low end. Where does this leave ADTP? If the PC makers move away from ADPT's products than all the PSR, PER & PEG calculations in the world don't count for a hill of beans. Slob