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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (3007)	4/9/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Off-topic... Thanks for Erdman corrections. As I mentioned, I am not perhaps as sympathetically interested in his story as I might be, because I read carefully a couple of his books back in the 1980s, and all his very persuasive arguments turned out to be absolutely dead wrong. I blame myself for paying attention to him, but his analysis cost me a great deal of money. To be fair to Erdman, though, I suppose that my application of Milton Friedman's ideas were equally damaging. Friedman failed to take into account the possibility that worldwide productivity increases might equal or even exceed rapid monetary growth. The monetary figures of the mid-1980s were much like those of the later 1960s and early 1970s and seemed to presage rapid inflation. But without a war going to eat up and divert the goods and services, no inflation occurred--or rather, a continual disinflation began that was the basis of the prosperity of the 1990s. I did not find out about Erdman's Swiss prison term until after I had lost a lot of money and was disposed to think that he might well have deserved it. I'll try to be more sympathetic. I have been saying to myself ever since, "Do not take financial advice from a person who has been jailed for financial improprieties." I still have a couple of his books up in the attic, but I think I will leave them there. What do you think about the prospects of the demand for oil in Asia? Why do you think the Japanese are not more actively involved in acquiring oil leases of their own? Here's China participating the the pipeline-building project in the Sudan that promises to deliver huge amounts of oil, along with Malaysia. I would think that oil exploration would be a good way to use some of the enormous capital accumulation that Japan has.

To: Worswick who wrote (3007)	4/9/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 9980

Worswick, look at this--as you probably do already: bog.frb.fed.us click down to the money growth rates. 11.2% on M3. With all the productivity possible, this is excess liquidity that continues to pump up equities and now in selected areas of the US real estate. Just wait until OPEC wants their cut and gets the act together.