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Technology Stocks : The Learning Company (TLC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Carmine Cammarosano who wrote (4470)4/10/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Peter Goss  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 6318
 
All,

Some observations from a recent seller of TLC (from $6 to $25):

1) The thread psychology should be a warning sign. Everyone is so excited that everyone with a different view (factually based or not) is treated with contempt.

2) The stock has doubled in a short time (fundamentals have not improved that much)

3) Every analyst is scrambling to upgrade - they are always late. If any of you can remember the mirror image of this scenario, when TLC was $10 and falling, then you will understand.

4) The low priced PC is not the holy grail - the price elasticity argument is not valid. I don't think PC penetration will ever get close to what people expect.

5) Software is and will continue to be a brutally competitive market with shrinking margins.

6) Growth by acquisition has blown up on TLC in the past. Buying growth right now is very expensive, and management has not shown its saavy in the past. They have been correct strategically but not financially.

7) 20x earnings is way too much for this company given the nature of its business and its management. This is not MSFT.

These are just observations; I have no position in TLC right now. The stock may continue its run and I hope for those who stay it does. Just protect your gains with stops or options. And remember the JP Morgan adage.

Good luck.

Peter