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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (43437)	4/9/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 61433

It might get downgraded Monday on no upward guidance and almost no earnings growth. If not the stock will probably become infested with shorts like it has been since October. IMO ASND will be at 34-33 by next Friday, not because it is not a good stock, but because of short selling. There wasn't enough positive forward looking news to keep them out. I couldn't disagree more. In fact, based on the conference call I would expect those networkers focused on ATM to go up in sympathy next week. Just a few random comments: "CLECs emerging --- need product differentiation and lower prices." "Williams, Level3, and Qwest --- emerging highspeed networks are driving incumbents to upgrade networks." "PTTs see handwriting on the wall and must upgrade." "Voice over IP/Frame Relay --- the difference is that ASND is shipping now. Customers are using our products." "ATM/FR --- recent wins in backbone. Demand is strong here and in Asia and Europe." "In enterprise access the market is evolving at unprecedented pace." "We expected Core Systems to be flat but demand was strong (FR/ATM)." "Gross margins were better than expected." "We are hiring aggressively." "Adding development center in Europe and will soon be adding one in India." "Inventory turns will improve next quarter." "We are comfortable with analysts' estimates for next quarter." "Core Systems business will be 1/2 of revs by end of year.." "Book to Bill greater than 1 in both US and international." "Backbone moving to ATM over Sonet." "Japan shows great saturation in network and demand (to upgrade). Timing is the question. Will they decide to expand?" "Order activity for current quarter is strong. European Q3 softness has been taken into account." "We didn't recognize any of GX 550 or Williams business this Q." "GTE is a major win." "International market will increase. It will represent over 30% by end of year." Pat

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (43437)	4/9/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: username	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

No rev from the Williams deal and no rev from the GX550 on Q1; no talking (again) about the big clients, a "very significant win" with GTE, positive outlook on Asia and Europe, no price cutting, margins better, products are the "standard in the industry", a mention of a potential client in Latin America (?!), will continue to be "aggressively hiring", setting up "multi-year deals", and comfortable with .27 for Q2 and 1.15 for the year. The reason there was no "upward guidance" is Ashby already said what he was going to do, he said it 3 months ago. This is bad? They are not playing "street" rules, they are just doing what they said they were going to do. A penny over estimates (diluted) is bad? COMS was a bit under that number... ASND management is being ultra-conservative. They know their own game, and they are calling the shots. The other way didn't work. When they announce the next big contract, they will give some "upward guidance". If it goes back to 33, I swear I'll mortgage my house! But it won't.