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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (18739)	4/12/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, Most of what you said is absolutely accurate. ... until you wrote, "...here is still a glut in the industry with no end in sight...". Lehman Brothers analyst (Gumport or White, I'm not sure which) cited stats that indicate Fab Capacity utilization is above 90% and that leading edge Fab capacity utilization is above 95%. MU reports that bit growth will double this year consuming any excess capacity before year end. If you're only interested in "momentum" investing, then you can probably wait a few months for some clear signs (such as prices that are 30-60% higher). If, on the other hand, you wanted to try your hand at Value investing, that may require you to look at other indicators and establish positions long before the crowd has started to move into this market sector. Each of us must choose which strategy will allow us to sleep best at night, then do whatever is most consistent with that strategy. Good luck, Ian. P.S. I would never try to give you or anyone else "any fundamental reason why I should add to my "momentum" AMAT position??". That's something that only you can do. After all, it's your money and you who's taking the risk.

To: davesd who wrote (18739)	4/12/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave: welcome back, no, nothing's changed: Everyone accepts that 1998 is going to be a lousy year. The interesting question is: how about 1999? Can the semi industry add all needed capacity by die shrinks, through 1999? How far into the future has the 300 mm transition been pushed? Will the Tigers (Korea, Taiwan, etc) be roaring again, or are they at the start of a Japanese-style permanent stagnation? The upcoming earnings reports (INTC, KLAC) may shed a bit of light into the murky future.