To: The Phoenix who wrote (13269 ) 4/13/1998 9:33:00 AM From: Lerxst Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77399
Gary, Well, gee, I'm not sure exactly where I should start. Let's see, I build router hardware for Bay Networks and have designed asics and related logic for the last 9 years. I think that gives me some basis upon which to understand the hardware costs to build and manufacture routers. Asics aren't cheap? In what manner of speaking? R&D dollars? Yes, the NRE associated with a chip can be pricey. Per unit pricing? Very cheap. ASIC allow for the consolidation of logic into a fewer number of overall packages, thereby reducing part count. In volume, asic pricing gets real cheap and I assume Cisco ships things in volume, no? Ever hear of LSI Logic? There latest ASIC family would probably fit the equivalent of an entire Cisco 7000 on a single chip. And, no, I never said that there was no value-add in software. Actually, the software will be the key differentiator as the hardware becomes more and more commoditized. Few vendors can do routing software very well. The scaling and stability issues involved in doing software well are often underestimated, IMO. However, I will state that Cisco's IOS, alone, does not command the multiple you seem to think it does. If Cisco truly believes it can dictate pricing, regardless of the true underlying costs, then they are truly doomed. Free market forces will dictate the pricing, not Cisco. But, Cisco's mgmt team has done a magnificient job over the years, so I don't think they'd screw that one up. If you don't believe that hardware pricing can and will come down on a per port basis, you are living in a fantasy world. Look at what's happened to the price of 10/100 Ethernet NIC's. Or, 10Mb switches or 10/100 auto-sensing switches, etc. In 1995, for example, Bay's 28115 Fast Ethernet switch (first on the market, btw) listed at about $1000 per port. Today, the BayStack 350T Fast Ethernet switch lists at under $200. (Not sure exactly how low it's gone). If you don't think the same will happen in routing switches, which focus primarily on Fast Ethernet and Gigabit Ethernet and IP and IPX, you're sadly mistaken. Even outside of the routing switch space, do you not believe that Cisco will come under pricing pressure? What happens when the Juniper's and Avici's and Argon's begin shipping BFR's? Don't you think that'll put pricing pressure on Cisco's 12000? Well, it's not really my point to convince you one way or another on this issue. But, based on what I perceive to be your eyes closed faith in Cisco, I sure hope they don't ever disappoint you... Regards, Lerxst