To: Jerry Olson who wrote (39211 ) 4/12/1998 11:14:00 PM From: Patrick Slevin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
Okay. I'm the kind of guy who gets a read by reading as much of other people's stuff as I can. Personally my methods are so simple that I must be a moron, so I look to others for confirmation or rebuttal. I read a lot of Gene Inger tonight and salient points he makes include the following. The US/Japan Dollar-selling/Yen buying created a short covering rally. This may have been timed to take into account the thin market that would accommodate government intervention which rarely if ever works anyway. In any event, if this effort at stopping a trending Greenback were to fail people will not get suckered into to it next time so quickly. The US actually made out like bandits as they started first and dropped the $ and raised the Yen and Japan continued the short term aberration but at higher valuations, as the US had pre-empted Japan as they slept, so to speak. A rally in the market which fails, giving us a scenario which had the markets really getting hurt after the media-induced (now I'm talking, not Inger. A lot of this does have my own slant on it) euphoric run through DJIA 9000, could not suffer another failure. Which (me again) sets us up for the serious failure after expiration. The market going through this past week had a distributive tone to it. So a failure again will be sold into hard, my guess. Trading on the long side is do-able for intraday traders, one would suppose, but not viable for longer term players. In short. The impression that has been created for the people who think they have lived through a crash because they saw October 27th is that Bear Markets last for a day or two. These people will be most vulnerable to a recovery from last weeks minor pullback in mid week and get sucked into a rally into expiry. Then, any selloff should create a Plonk downdraft because the NASD has not been supporting the DJIA. BTW, I know you are short INTC, by virtue of being long puts. Be careful this week, as INTC is expected to announce new chips which would have a short-term bullish effect on the stock. DISCLAIMER-Don't buy or sell anything on my remarks, as at any given second I could get long or short if I think it will put money in my pocket. I got killed in a golf match today and I need the bucks.