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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/13/1998 12:12:00 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Peter, Your thoughts make sense in a period somewhere in the distant future in which the world has undergone a transition to some sort of steady state economy. Why this economy should develop by an invisible hand is not at all clear. How it should develop by design is equally murky. Technology has led to incredible overcapacity which in the developed countries must be taken up by huge consumption. Yes, buy some some stuff, use it for a week and discard it <g>. That Japanese have not made a transition to this kind of life is rooted in their geography and history. They need spend to put liquidity to their system. I don't think that they will. BTW. NYTimes today had an article in which Laura Tyson compared the markets to mania. Manias are great time to make money. The problem is when to get off :)

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/13/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 9980

Peter, "how is it, generally (philosophically or whatever), that increasing consumption can make people better of?....Am I making sense to anyone but myself?" You're making a lot of sense to me. That is one important reason why it is a mistake for countries to adopt the export-driven economic model as the path the "development". We end up with countries supporting projects which make absolutely no economic sense, which aren't responding to actual demand, whose basic raison d'etre is to get market share to "take over" or be a "major player" in an industry. Yes, they employ a lot of people where the "company" is located, but carried to the extreme that it is carried to, it eventually wrecks the industry. The DRAM business is perhaps the most extreme example, but it is salutary to look at it. There are plenty of others, from steel and various heavy manufacturing businesses to TVs and consumer electronics. The moribund Japanese economy is what is in store for us all if this model is consistently followed.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/13/1998 10:39:00 AM
From: see clearly now	Respond to of 9980

Peter, a good holiday time reflection. Ordinary people who live an ordinary life in Japan are not dumb. They know their beauocrats run the show for a different game then for the benefit of ordinary people. (in other countries it is the political leaders). At the same time, as has been previously discussed on this thread Japan is a nation of individuals that adhere strongly to customs and will be slow to adjust....In my experience the younger Japanese males are less influenced by customs. Mean while there is a movement emerging in the northern European countries and on the west coast of America towards voluntary simplicity which fits your criteria for sensibility...perhaps out of this so called Asian Crisis will emerge an opportunity(s) for developing a more sensible and equitable lifestyle in this region of our world?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/13/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

I think you make sense. And this is the very reason that jumpstarting the Japanese economy this way may not work.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/13/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: k.ramesh	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 9980

If you look at sagging commodity prices, and that physical goods constitute a smaller proportion of an american's budget, we may be getting there. All this service economy stuff where you clean my house and I do your taxes and it all adds to the GDP and we are all supposed to be richer is already happening. Unfortunately this is over and above huge doses of physical consumption of goods that are conveniently produced by the labor classes in the third world. Consumption is a hard drug to give up . As for Japan going to war to boost its economy, why not charity? The world seems awash in stuff- copper, oil, chips diskdrives, cash. If only the rich countries and the rich can get over their hangup with making the poor get only what they 'deserve' and the hangup with acoounting for every second of time and cent of money the world could be better off. Like with debt, nobody wants to write it off, just maintain the illusion, roll it over into new debt. At some point the world will wake up and figure out that this 'growth' manufactured by valuing incremental advantages at astronomical rates is just an illusion. eg. the internet companies have been attributed some 'value' but nothing has been subtracted from TV companies value which has been eroding (you got only 9 hrs a day for tv internet and print ) . Every new drug discovered is considered the greatest thing since penicillin, ignoring the fact that the marginal impact is smaller,- obscure disease, works in for a small group. don't even get me started with banks. First we make arbitrary tax laws which force people to have sixteen different accounts, spread over ten providers, then they consolidate . And this has created new value? gimme a break. Ramesh.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (3087)	4/14/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

A question for all seasons and ages. Peter: Great question! Sages, philosophers and various and sundry economists have debated and pondered over this question from time immemorial. My answer is this to you, if not for acquiring 'stuff' and more 'stuff' what is this life all about then? If not for this pursuit life itself will have no meaning and cease to exist as we know it.As for me I am thinking about going back to hunting and gathering 'stuff',you know the old fashioned way.<gg>