To: The Phoenix who wrote (13279 ) 4/13/1998 11:51:00 AM From: Lerxst Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77399
Gary, My, my, my, now it's personal, eh? Fine, whatever. Can you read? Where did I say that *asic* prices would fall by an order of magnitude? I said routing switches would be one tenth the cost of traditional routers. Cisco's bread and butter. By leveraging the latest in asic technology to replace older FPGA, PLD and discrete logic, prices will come down and already have. Is this not intuitively obvious? And, by the way, the price point for routing switches is already set, not ten years, not five years, but right now. To deny otherwise is foolhardy. I will ignore the personal attack regarding what knowledge I may or may not possess as well as the attack against Bay. I would like to point out that my original post was in no way anti-Cisco or pro-Bay. In fact, I actually praised Cisco for their past and future performance. However, my original point still stands and you have seemingly chosen to ignore it. That point being that Cisco has done a great job at continually re-inventing themselves and exploring new areas of the industry. They are a great marketing engine, too. However, the one area of technology that they have yet to toy with significantly is their legacy router product family. It is serving as a cash cow for them and I think they are understandably nervous about losing the margins and revenue. Transitioning this revenue stream over to newer products that cost less and have lower margins will be challenging. If you don't think the industry will change and replace those legacy routers with newer, faster, less expensive technology then I think you are sadly mistaken. BTW, I sincerely hope you don't work for Cisco's product management organization, otherwise they are in for some rough times. Your profile states you like Intel as a stock. I assume then that you've read Grove's book _Only the Paranoid Survive_ and the effect of 10X forces and inflection points. If Cisco isn't paranoid about losing their router revenue and gross margins, then they will not survive. Lerxst