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To: ccryder who wrote (2598)4/14/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Geoff  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10852
 
Re: "Y2K affecting LEAPS?"

This is possible, however, many of us seem to be confident that exercising 2000s may be feasible some time before the "doom and gloom" overtakes the media. That is what scares me the most about Y2k problems, not the actual problem that y2k presents. I think that many of the problems will be fixed in time, at a great cost to corporations, thus impacting earnings near-term. But that is not what will cause a market pullback or selloff, what will, IMO, is all the negative portrayal and "world-wide shutdowns" that will occur, the there will be "utter chaos" to quote one individual that I saw interviewed.

That "doom and gloom" will likely scare even some of the most sound-minded investors into taking a little out of the market for safekeeping. Things like that can magnify exponentially as the news coverage grows, and if the market really does begin to sink -- when selloffs are no longer met by bargain hunters, many others may run.

Of course, that is when people like me will thrive. Beginning to stockpile cash in expectations of a grand fire sale some time next year. I have even played with the idea of buying DOW 2000 PUTS to hedge. Sick, I know. But I think that LOR LEAPS will be profitable, if the price of LOR reaches a satisfactory point for the LEAP holder to exercise. I am looking to exercise my LEAPS at a price of 40, I own the Jan 2000 30s, and think that a 25% pullback is quite extreme once 40 is hit. So that is my target exercise price.

geoff

geoff