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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (1379)	4/14/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Marc Hyman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1629

AT&T Frame Relay outage news.com "The outage started with communications between two frame relay Stratacom switches from Cisco Systems and extended through the rest of the network, according to AT&T. Cisco is the primary provider of switching equipment for the Interspan service." (maybe they should talk to Ascend :-)

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (1379)	4/16/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1629

Yes, Merrill Lynch upgraded yesterday ASND. As I reported yesterday on the regular thread, Joe says one more tuff quarter and then smooth sailing. Here is his report: ASCEND COMM.:Upgrading Intermediate Term Opinion to Accumulate [up from Neutral] ACCUMULATE [Near Term] Long Term ACCUMULATE Reason for Report: Opinion Change Price: $40 1/2 12 Month Price Objective: $45-50 Estimates (Dec) 1997A 1998E 1999E EPS: $1.06 $1.15-1.25 $1.40-1.60 [he upped estimates] P/E: 37.6x 33.2x 26.6x EPS Change (YoY): 13.2% 25.0% Consensus EPS: $1.18 $1.48 (First Call: 14-Apr-98) Q1 EPS (Mar): $0.31 $0.28 Cash Flow/Share: $0.83 $0.92 $1.20 Price/Cash Flow: 48.0x 43.3x 33.2x Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil Opinion & Financial Data Investment Opinion: C-3-2-9 to C-2-2-9 [see note at bottom for key] Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $8,094.6 / 203 Book Value/Share (Apr-98): $5.19 Price/Book Ratio: 7.7x ROE 1998E Average: NA LT Liability % of Capital: 0.0% Est. 5 Year EPS Growth: 30.0% [we are worth a bigger PE with this better growth rate] Stock Data 52-Week Range: $60-$22 Symbol / Exchange: ASND / OTC Options: Chicago Institutional Ownership-Spectrum: 29.0% Brokers Covering (First Call): 27 ML Industry Weightings & Ratings Strategy; Weighting Rel. to Mkt.: Income: Underweight (07-Mar-95) Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-95) Income & Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-95) Capital Appreciation: In Line (13-Jan-98) Market Analysis; Technical Rating: Below Average (29-Dec-97) The views expressed are those of the macro department and do not necessarily coincide with those of the Fundamental analyst. For full investment opinion definitions, see footnotes. Investment Highlights: o We are upgrading the intermediate-term rating from Neutral to Accumulate based on the following investment considerations: 1. A recent contract with LCI International increases our confidence that the Core Systems business (Frame Relay and ATM switches) will achieve strong growth during the second half of 1998, and 1999. 2. After four consecutive quarters of a year-to-year decline in quarterly EPS, we are forecasting EPS growth of 50% in the September 1998 quarter to $0.30 versus $0.20. 3. We are increasing our 1999 EPS estimate from $1.35-1.45 to $1.40-1.60. (ASND) The securities of the company are not listed but trade over-the-counter in the United States. In the US, retail sales and/or distribution of this report may be made only in states where these securities are exempt from registration or have been qualified for sale. MLPF&S or its affiliates usually make a market in the securities of this company. Opinion Key (X-a-b-c): Investment Risk Rating(X): A - Low, B - Average, C - Above Average, D - High. Appreciation Potential Rating (a: Int. Term - 0-12 mo.; b: Long Term - >1 yr.): 1 - Buy, 2 - Accumulate, 3 - Neutral, 4 - Reduce, 5 - Sell, 6 - No Rating. Income Rating(c): 7 - Same/Higher, 8 - Same/Lower, 9 - No Cash Dividend. ------------ Joe Bellace was in print with the .26 EPS number ahead of the earnings were released for the Q1 in his forecast of the sectors EPS by player report. We maybe he is on to something. Dennis

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (1379)	4/18/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1629

Cowen & Co. likes ASND with the new LCI order, too. This item is from Wednesday, (sorry for the delayed post, taxes got in the way). They did not change price targets or estimates but wrote the following: Key Points: 1. ASND Wins Deployment Of Approx. 40 Frame Relay And ATM Switch Deployment At LCI. 2. We Estimate The Deal Value At $5MM To $10MM. 3. LCI Deal Is Incremental To Prospective Qwest Deal For Core Switches. 4. Maintain Buy Rating And $45 Target Price. Estimates Unchanged. Thesis/Valuation: ASND is a dominant player in the Internet access concentrator market and it has a strong position in the ATM switch and frame relay markets. The company will be one of the most significant infrastructure suppliers for the explosion in spending on next generation carrier voice and data networks. While the access concentrator and frame relay switch markets appear poised to grow 10 to 20% annually, the ATM switch market is exploding and ASND's CBX500 and GX550 products are achieving significant deployments in carrier backbones. [ASND's Core Switching business could grow faster than the Networkers in general is how I read this. Ashby said it would cross over to more than 50% of the business soon, which this report supports.] Recently, momentum is strong at ASND with the award of several large multi-year deals. We rate ASND shares a Buy-2, with a $45 Target Price, based on 30x C99 EPS of $1.50. ASND Wins Frame Relay And ATM Switch Deployment At LCI. Win Additive To Potential Qwest Deal. LCI announced today that it intends to deploy some 40 ASND frame relay (BSTDX 9000) and ATM switches (CBX500) in its network. We believe that these will deploy in the following two to three quarters and that the total value of the deal is between $5MM and $10MM. On its Q1:C97 earnings conference call, the company said that it is in discussion about deployment of its core switches at Qwest. Qwest is in the process of buying LCI. We believe that the deal announced today with LCI is incremental to the prospective deal at Qwest. ----------- Core Switching to have better than access concentrator and frame relay growth. I like that. QWEST could be the next big contract. I'll be watching for that. Good reading, Dennis