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To: jjs_ynot who wrote (7624)4/14/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: LastShadow  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 120523
 
Fourir Analysis of waves:

Actually, yes, that has been done. It works especially well in a trending market. There is one fundamental flaw with it, however (and I apologize to the thread for the following in advance): In a Fourier series, the function is of a bounded variation over an interval of 2L, that is, if it can be expressed as the difference of two non-decreasing or two non-increasing bounded functions.

The reason this fails in non trending markets, is that weekends, holidays, major market influences (such as greenspeak, asia, economic strength news) may cause the daily index spread to exceed the boundary limits, thereby invalidating the wave transform premise. Modifying frequency permutations helps with one or two of those issues, but the bottom line is that simple trix or exponentially smoothed linear regression forecasting will give you the dominant frequency in about a hundredth of the effort.

There will be a quiz on Friday.

lastshadow