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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (18819)	4/15/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

It is hard to be sarcastic when so few people follow it. Nothing seems to cause the equips to drop. Now the intel rumors are confirmed, but their cap equip cuts are fairly minimal, so no drop in the equips. All bad news is accepted easily. Meanwhile we steam towards summer, closer and closer to July 1, and that famous 6 month outlook that wall street takes will then legitimately have the equips looking at 1999. Yes, it appears we are already looking at 1999, but by July in a normal time, we would be looking at 1999 revs/earnings. Therefore, 2 things are critical for a short term investor now: Will 1999 be good and justify a price this high or higher on July 1? Will anything derail the equips before July 1? I continue to hold a large amount of equips, but only 1/3 of what I had in around mid Feb. Very little change in the stocks since then. I have to answer these 2 questions right, to maximize my profits. If 1999 is indeed good, and this is believed to be the case this summer, we won't get a drop from here. I do think 1999 will be good, but now believe it will not really heat up until around mid-year. I think the klac and nvls cc could cause a drop, along with whatever amat says in May. Forgive me for simplifying these ideas too much, but I think these are the correct questions investors or potential investors should be asking themselves now. All the rest is noise. 1999 would have to be believed to also be a poor year, for the stocks to revisit their lows. That belief could evolve slowly. A quick drop could occur with some bleak cc in the next month, but we would restabilize by summer as the market looks to 1999. What does everyone think?