Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (18820)	4/15/1998 12:59:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The scenario you present is very reasonable, but I think there is one more potential factor which could take semi equips lower, and that is a significant pullback in the broader market. With the PE on the S&P 500 being higher than at any time in history, I have come to the conclusion that I will not be comfortable owning any stocks on margin until after the next correction.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (18820)	4/15/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: Laker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

In the macro view, you have omitted the effects of interest rate cuts or hikes. If the Fed tightens, more funds will flow or be redirected to US govt debt and away from investments in foreign markets and US securities. This will have a chilling effect, I believe, although the first ratcheting in rates usually does not immneadiately de-rail the equity markets. Usually this is preceded by market-based interest rate adjustments to the upside. Investors sometimes view a splash of cold water as a as positive effect. I believe a pending rate hike is THE bump in the road. We are getting farther out on the limb, IMO.