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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (508)	4/16/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 927

Stock Update 4/16/98 close. Updated ADPT thru XCIT. This thread analyzes and discusses forecasts for the following stocks (NASDAQ index too) using a trading system based on a variation of stochastics, trading with the trend, or (trading against the trend on volatility spikes). Bollinger bands and volatility are key elements of the method--volatility based trading with help from regular support and resistance levels): NASDAQ..ADPT..AMAT..AMD..AMGN..AMZN..AOL..ARX..ASA..ASND.. AVM..AVNT..BBIOY..BMY..BNYN..CADE..CBIZ..CDRD..CEXP..CFON.. CIEN..CKFR..CLST..COMS..CORR..CORX..CPQ..CTXS..CYBR..CYCH.. CYMI..CYPB..DELL..DIMD..DSYS..DWRX..EFII..FONR..GDT..GERN.. GTW..HD..HRSH..IDTC..IHS..IIT..INTC..IOM..IRIDF..JLG..KLIC.. LCCI..LSI..LTBG..LTXX..MAIN..MEDA..MIND..MPDI..MSFT..MUEI.. NORT..NSCP..NTBK..ORCL..OXHP..PNDA..PRMS..PSIX..QCOM..QWST.. REMC..RIG..RMBS..RMDY..SEEK..SFY..SHVA..SMOD..SOCR..SUNW.. SYNT..TDFX..TMAR..TMX..TRBO..TSSW..TTRR..UEIC..UTX.. VECO..VLSI..WCII..WTT..XCIT.. All commentary is at the time of the last signal received except for some of the notes I've inserted. Signals are based on 12 day bollinger bands on %K=5 and %D=3 stochastics. Signals are generated as the stochastic line crosses one of five bollinger band lines (See Post 500 for an Index of this Thread). I manually edit the signals based on the trend. A "buy" means go long only. A "buy to cover" means cover any open short positions, but does not mean go long. A "sell" means sell any open long positions but does not mean sell short. A "sell short" means go short only. Many times the signals are too late because the price move on the day of the signal was very large. Look for signals where the stock has not already moved very much. This advice will keep you out of trouble. Also, always use stops. Happy trading. With tight/narrow bollinger bands, the signal generated with stochastics are often 180 degrees out of phase because of the delay involved in getting the signal on past data. On tight bands, it can be profitable to consider selling on buy signals and buying on sell signals until the actual breakout occurs. NASDAQ Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Uptrend is now neutral. I'd expect resistance at the upper band at 1860. (15 Apr note--upper bollinger band is widening upwards indicating a break past 1860 now too. Big tech rally. I've got calls on PSFT and ASND and will have more cash available on Monday--wrote covered puts that I'm going to get called out on.) ADPT Last signal buy on 15 Apr. There's the breakout upward. Resistance on the upside is at $22.50 to $25. AMAT Last signal buy on 14 Apr. The trend is absolutely flat. Expect strong resistance at the upper bollinger band at $38.75. AMD Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Still on an uptrend. AMGN Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Its on a good downtrend. AMZN Last signal buy on 9 Apr. Trend is still up. (7 Apr. note. The trend is now neutral. Support at $80 from lower bollinger band.) AOL Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Still extremely solid uptrend. The price move yesterday was not that great, so there's time to get in. ARX Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. Still in a downtrend. ASA Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Its showing break upwards. A break upwards goes to resistance just under $27.50. ASND Last signal buy on 8 Apr. Trend is up slightly. Today was a breakout. Volatility is increasing to the upside. I'd expect resistance at $45. Buy in the money calls to keep delta low and decrease amount spent for time value. (15 Apr note--its on the verge of breaking out to the upside. Volatility is not going to be getting any lower. I just hope it breaks before Friday's close.) AVM Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Trend is down slightly. Support at $12 even. AVNT Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Trend is looking sick now. A good short. Made it up to $21.125 and not quite to our target of $21 7/8. BBIOY Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. Still in a downtrend. BMY Last signal sell short on 8 Apr. (16 Apr note--About to give a buy signal. Neutral trend for play between the lower and upper bollinger bands.) BNYN Last signal buy on 6 Apr. Still in an uptrend. Volatility is dropping off dramatically. Looks like a major decision point. Uptrend gives it an upward bias for a break. Resistance is a $6.50. Stochastics still a buy supporting the upward break scenario for now.(16 Apr note $9.00????Tighten the stop a notch. Put it at $9 even.) CADE Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Move was a large one so have to look for a dip to get in. CBIZ Last signal sell or sell short on 6 Apr. neutral to slightly down trend. Volatility is at a minimum. (9 Apr. note--Looks like a stop out on short. Breaking out to the upside.) CDRD Last signal sell on 7 Apr. The volatility is probably high enough to short against the uptrend. Higher risk play. CEXP Last signal sell on 16 Apr. Look for reentry below $10.50. CFON Last signal sell short on 8 Apr. CIEN Last signal buy to cover on 7 Apr as stochastics are crossing the middle band. (15 Apr note--may go to resistance at $50.) CKFR Last signal buy on 26 Mar. There was that long awaited signal. The uptrend is still intact. Remember there is still resistance at $24 to $25. (15 Apr note--about to cross the middle band and no price drop. Really strong support on this one.) CLST Last signal buy or buy to cover on 13 Apr. Neutral trend so buy it and sell at the top band at $35.50 or just beyond it. COMS Last signal buy to cover on 7 Apr. Its on a neutral trend so pay attention to your bollinger bands. Its sitting on the lower band and its sitting on a support level and stochastics are about to give a buy signal. Time to cover all shorts.) CORR Last signal sell on 7 Apr. Same analysis as CKFR. High volatility, price stalled at a resistance level and stochastics are about to give a sell signal. Time to take profits on long positions. (14 Apr note--I think its going to go slightly higher. Looking for greater breakdown in stochastics.) CORX Last signal sell on 14 Apr. I think I'd take the money, even with the uptrend. CPQ Last signal buy on 9 Apr. The trend is fairly neutral. CTXS Last signal sell on 16 Apr. CYBR Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. The trend is down. Looking for a short reentry point. CYCH Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Nice move today huh? Hold on to it. Set stops. CYMI Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Trend is still up and its going much higher. CYPB Last signal buy on 13 Apr. DBCC Last signal sell on 15 Apr. Actually a sell signal on 14 Apr. Should challenge support at $5.25 next. DELL Last signal sell on 15 Apr. Risky play (the sell signal that is) becuase of the narrow bands/low volatility. Still in an uptrend too. DIMD Last signal sell on 9 Apr. DSYS Last signal sell or sell short on 14 Apr. Trend is neutral. Seeya at $6.00. DWRX Last signal buy to cover on 9 Apr. EFII Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. I think its a sucker rally that will be shortable again. The trend is down. v(15 Apr note--dropping to support at just above $20.) FONR Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. Don't cover long term shorts since its under $5.00. GDT Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. The trend is down. (15 Apr. note--dropping to $70) GERN Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. Cover at the lower bollinger band. (15 Apr note--its right at a good support level. A countertrend rally goes to $12.50) GTW Last signal buy on 8 Apr. The trend is up. Good break to buy calls on. HD Last signal sell on 16 Apr. HRSH Last signal sell short on 14 Apr. Good downtrend. IDTC Last signal sell short on 14 Apr. Yes it dropped a lot but its going to go much lower. IHS Last signal sell on 3 Apr. Very narrow and pinched bollinger bands. Bias for a downside break. (15 Apr. note--this is a short sell at this point. Going into a downtrend. Support at $35.00 from current $37.50.) IIT Last signal sell on 16 Apr. INTC Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. The trend is slightly down, so for now I'm looking for another short opportunity if any. (15 Apr. note--it bounced right off of the upper band today because its on a slightly downtrend. Look for support at $71) IOM Last signal sell or sell short on 16 Apr. IRIDF Last signal buy on 9 Apr. The last time I got a buy signal on this it went up A FREAKING LOT. I'm ready to buy calls on it next week. In the money of course.) JLG Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Decent uptrend still. (15 Apr note--very close to a breakout upwards.) KLIC Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. Its been on a downtrend. LCCI Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. LSI Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Trends is still up. LTBG Last signal buy on 13 Apr. Still in an uptrend. LTXX Last signal buy to cover on 15 Apr. Was at a support level as well. Sometimes it pays to anticipate signals. MAIN Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. MEDA Last signal sell short on 15 Apr. $10 was an important support level. Next support at $9 and below that $7.) MIND Last signal sell short on 13 Apr. MPDI Last signal buy on 9 Apr. Neutral trend. Trade between the bands. Look for $9. MSFT Last signal buy on 9 Apr. Its breaking higher also. Buy in the money calls. MU Last signal buy to cover on 14 Apr. I did this morning (sold puts for a profit when MU was at $28 1/8.) MUEI Last signal buy on 16 Apr. NORT Last signal sell short (can't) on 16 Apr. NSCP Last signal buy or buy to cover on 25 Mar. Its been forming a base. Not a solid breakout yet. NTBK Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Still in an uptrend. ORCL Last signal sell short on 16 Apr. A good short because there has not already been a large price move. I'd expect a drop to $25. OXHP Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Slight uptrend. I'd expect a run to resitance at $20 which is half past resistance at $17.50.) PNDA Last signal buy or buy to cover on 8 Apr. (15 Apr note--another buy signal today. Sell at $6.00 even.) PRMS Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. PSIX Last signal sell on 16 Apr. Maybe the trend is over? Narrow bollinger bands and neutral trend. QCOM Last signal buy on 14 Apr. (15 Apr note--still looking for that upward break. They announce earnings next Tuesday.) QWST Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. Volatility is high enough for a countertrend rally (in other words a buy signal). REMC Last signal sell or sell short on 16 Apr. Turning into a downtrend. RIG Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Breaking out to the upside at low volatility point. I'd expect it go from current $55 to resistance at $60 in fairly short order.) Buy in the money calls for May, like the May $50s. Don't pay a lot for time value. RMBS Last signal sell on 6 Apr. RMDY Last signal was a buy on 15 Apr. Good solid uptrend. SEEK Last signal buy on 14 Apr. (15 Apr note--up almost $9 today. That is a 33% return in one day. 16 Apr note--set stops at $35) SFY Last signal buy on 15 Apr. Breaking out to upside. Expect resistance at $20.) SHVA Last signal sell or sell short on 14 Apr. SMOD Last signal buy on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--Its breaking out to the upside. Volatility is increasing and has a long way to go before peaking. I'd expect first run to go to resistance at $26 to $27.) SOCR Last signal sell short on 1 Apr. Still in a long term downtrend, (15 Apr note--Getting indications that long term shorts should be coverd next time its at the lower bollinger band.) SUNW Last signal buy to cover on 13 Apr. (15 Apr note--Its going to hit resistance at $45 again.) SYNT Last signal sell on 7 Apr. (16 Apr note-- I think this is close to a buy signal.) TDFX Last signal buy or buy to cover on 13 Apr. Looks like I missed the signal somehow. I only made it down to MIND that day. That's how I missed it. TMAR Last signal buy or buy to cover on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--I'd expect it to hit strong resistance at $23 even. It will be a good short opportunity.) TMX Last signal buy to cover on 8 Apr. (15 Apr note--looking for that next short opportunity. Its probably 3 days away.) TRBO Last signal buy to cover on 16 Apr. TSSW Last signal buy or buy to cover on 27 Mar. Under $5 stock. Big move today. Watch for price reistance and price slowdown, price volume divergence etc. to pick out top. I'd pick a profit target of about $3.50. (16 Apr--another buy signal today.) TTRR Last signal buy to cover on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--sometimes buy to cover signals turn out to be flat out good buy signals, especially for stocks on only short term downtrends and long term uptrends where the price has dropped to a good support level provided by a price peak in the past.) UEIC last signal sell on 9 Apr. About to cross middle band. (15 Apr note--Consolidating as volatility decreases. Still a real good uptrend.) UTX Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Volatility is actually quite low on this one, so I don't expect any price drops on the next sell signal. VECO Last signal buy on 14 Apr. Good uptrend. Low volatility. Primed for a break upwards. Good one to buy May $35 calls in the money.) VLSI Last signal buy on 13 Apr. (15 Apr, note--buy signal really pays off. Hold it and watch for a peak in volatility and/or sell on stochastics.) WCII Last signal sell short on 13 Apr. (16 Apr note--I'd expect a bottom at $37.50 to start. The trend is moderately down. Next stochastic peak will be a most excellent short opportunity.) WFC Last signal buy on 3 Apr. (15 Apr note-- Its about to give its first sell signal, but due to the strong trend we're going to ignore and wait for a greater breakdown in stochastics before selling. I'd expect it to go to $380 and drop back to $360 before then going higher again.) WTT Last signal buy on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--Its right at the upper band now, and the trend is slightly down. Watch it closely because it likely to break downward from this resistance level. Put in a stop at about $7 5/16 for now.) XCIT Last signal buy on 9 Apr. (15 Apr note--Really nice move thus far. Due to the rapid increase and volatility and the building of the trend, I'd have to see a breakdown in stochastics past the second to lowest line before I'd sell it.)