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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randy Tidd who wrote (11407)4/15/1998 6:27:00 PM
From: Marc Newman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
 
Okay, I guess I'm looking for a direct quote here, because I took Anderson's comments to mean flat revenue in year-on-year sales, not flat from this quarter. Ie, more like $1.6 billion plus, not $1.4 billion. On the other hand, I was only hoping for Apple to make $200 million this year and that seems on pace either way.

Marc



To: Randy Tidd who wrote (11407)4/15/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: X-Ray Man  Respond to of 213173
 
Agreed, the most conservative position right now would say
AAPL is fairly valued at market close price, so this should
provide the floor for next couple of days trading. There will
be pressure from those having written calls to pin the price
at 27-1/2 until option expiration. However, there has also
recently been an uptick in short position, and they now know
they will have to cover at this price OR HIGHER. So, there
is also a potential for a short squeeze. I think the real question
is will the news generate any buyer interest in the next couple
of days among institutions. If so, the MM won't be able to pin
price at option level, shorts will get squeezed, and price will
bob up with support at 30, highest option level. If not, we will
likely be pinned at 27-1/2 until options expire, and see a move
upward on Monday.

So, my April 30s might be worth something tomorrow, or they might
not ;-)

But my stock and April 27.5's should do OK.

JMO



To: Randy Tidd who wrote (11407)4/15/1998 6:45:00 PM
From: Dylan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
 
I expect more than 0.38 for the next two quarters. Remember, this is traditionally the weakest quarter for Apple.

So, I think a still conservative estimate is something like:
0.33 Q1
0.38 Q2
0.45 Q3
0.50 Q4
----
1.66 Yr

PE of 21 for Apple would then allow price to approach 35. However, a company that is further along in its turnaround phase deserves a higher PE than one that has yet to show it really can turn around.

-Dylan


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