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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7073)	4/15/1998 7:22:00 PM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<<RDB: IMO the street is on dope:-)>> What kind of controlled substance are you talking about ??? May be they are taking the same thing that we take - pain killers - the shorts are taking it everyday ...

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7073)	4/15/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

"...the street is on dope :-)" Pancho, - The aggregate sums now invested in 401-K retirement plans has exceeded one trillion dollars for the first time. Disposable income per family in the US has increased approx $100-200 per month over the recent past. Mutual funds holding cash slugs are under-performing their breathren as well as the general market averages. Credit card debt extremely easy to come by for those inclined to mis-use or abuse it. TV brokerage ads proclaim, "the train is leaving the station...", luring the naive into the "party". Boomers are in their peak earning years, and the 2-income family has become the norm. Boomer's inheritances from dying parents, sadly to say, are occurring on a daily basis, in effect consolidating the investment decision-making process. Some, if not quite a few, of these legacies will be pilfered away on unwise speculative investments, adding additional fuel to the mixture. The "dope" of the wealth effect is now cooking along in high gear. It was encouraging to see the new set of circuit-breakers that went into effect today, mandate ANYTIME during the trading day that the DJIA falls by 30%, - trading will cease for the day. :>) MT

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7073)	4/16/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18691

Here's an interesting piece. Looks like the type of stock we like! Pancho, this one looks like it can se your analysis, Seems like some shady accounting going on. *************************** Meanwhile, yacking about Yurie: A recent item here questioned less-than-arms-length relationships involving the company and companies controlled by Yurie's (YURI:Nasdaq) vice chairman, Kwok Li. Yesterday Yurie, which makes telecommunications networking hardware, reported blowout first-quarter numbers. However, a closer look at quarter-to-quarter sequential numbers, the proper measurement of a fast-growing company, shows receivables ballooned by 58% from December through March. Revenues, meanwhile, were up a more modest 11%. And days outstanding of receivables leaped to an uncomfortably high 95 days from a questionably high 68 days. It's always an eyebrow raiser anytime receivables days outstanding rise. It's a double eyebrow raiser when, at the same time, receivables rise much faster than revenues, because it suggests the company is stuffing distributors with more product than they can possibly sell. That was the first sign of trouble at Cabletron (CS:NYSE). In turn, high receivables today can cause quarters tomorrow to be soft if the stuffed products can't be quickly sold. (Alas, poor Compaq (CPQ:NYSE), we knew it well.) Furthermore, prepaid expenses zoomed higher, suggesting the company deferred taking expenses, which if it had could've resulted in lower earnings (by a couple a pennies per share, according to one skeptic). And whaddaya know -- coincidence of coincidences: The balance sheet happens to be outta whack the same quarter the company has had little in the way of product sales to Splitrock, its biggest customer, which is controlled by Li. Finally, Yurie's stock has been climbing ever since this column first raised questions about Li's cozy internal relationships. Another in a coincidence of coincidences: Shorts are being asked to return their borrowed shares to their rightful owners. Short squeeze, anybody? (Ah, the games people play.)

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7073)	4/16/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Well Pancho, I see AVEI came out with good #s, but... so did GDT, and GDT tanked today. I had some puts I bought after posting a few pieces regarding the slowdown of stent sales. It seemed like this one and AVEI were due for a downturn, Well GDT did today to the tune of 5 1/2. Made out nicely. I hope some of you saw those posts and did someting too. Dave Sorry I just checked after hours. It seems AVEI regained the 2 1/2 it lost today, back to 40. Oh well, it will succumb to the stent slowdown too.