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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (434)	4/15/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 4509

Melissa - I think Vantive is the most likely, not only because of the rumors (which, not surprisingly, are being denied or ignored by PSFT and VNTV execs)and shared board member, but because it seems to make sense. But, if they can't/don't cut a deal then Peoplesoft needs to do something in that space, so either they'll buy someone else or conjure up another off balance sheet entity to finance a build. Given the healthy stock price, I would think that buying someone vs. building in house would make alot more sense. My antennae (caution !, it has failed me before) is also telling me that an acquisition would also be timely from the perspective of throwing a little water on heated expectations. Kind of a cleansing of the shareholder base - get rid of the riff-raff. Whatever happens, I will buy on dips if I have the capacity. On a related note, I think the Vantive drop today is complete poker move by the market makers related to Friday's options expiration. I say this because I hold the June 40 call options, which maintained their value admirably even amid the 3 point drop - I haven't done the math yet, but I smell bullsh... If I am right (again, caution) the stock will resume its upward path after Friday (or perhaps the 2nd half of the trading day). If I wasn't fully invested, I would by Vantive aggressively at 35. [on the other hand, Vantive will be announcing earnings soon and maybe somebody knows something I don't]. cheers. John.