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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: R. M. Rosenthal	Respond to of 5736

"They don't have a sales network" From then on-- you lost me. DaveS-itis?

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: Webster Groves	Respond to of 5736

Now that a deadline of sorts has been stated for May 1 or thereabouts, I expect action soon in the current stalemate between longs and shorts. I now have 1/2 of my long position. I will buy the other 1/2 at the peak of the final short attack I expect between now and May 1. Go ahead, make my day. -wg P.S. rare if any of my posts make any substantive comment; just letting you know many eyes are watching.

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 1:04:00 AM
From: Clayleas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5736

Why I think you are wrong being short. I too am glad that this thread has finally gotten away from the personal attacks, etc. and we have once again begun to see substantive posts. In that vein, I appreciate you posting your reasons for being short CCSI. The following are my answers to your reasons. when you come down to it, I believe that CCSI has nothing to offer a partner. They don't have a sales network, they don't have any special manufacturing skills, etc. They do have something to offer. CCSI brings to the table an FDA approved medical device. It will be the partner's obligation to supply the sales and marketing organization. It is my understanding that manufacturing will be contracted out by CCSI to an ISO 9000 approved facility. If a big company (like Abbott, Johnson & Johnson, HP, etc) wanted a product to measure bilirubin noninvasively they could develop it (without infringing on any CCSI patents) in a year for $10-20 million. Perhaps another organization could develop a similar device in a year (I don't understand why you believe someone could do this without infringing on CCSI's patents - but let's just suppose they can as you say). They would then have to begin clinical trials which would take a minimum of 18 months and then they would have to get FDA approval (minimum 6 months). So now we are at least 3 years down the road when the new product comes out. In the meantime the company that has the deal with CCSI has had their product out on the market earning income and building a reputation. First to market means a lot, especially when the second is several years down the road. I've read something about CCSI selling a disposable calibration standard, but do you really think someone will calibrate before every test if it costs $20 to calibrate. When the alternative is a possible malpractice suit for a hospital or doctor, or the health of your new born in the case of home health care use (and insurance will pick up the cost anyway), there is no doubt in my mind that the disposable will be used. I also have heard that CCSI has taken great pains to ensure that the disposable will not be bi-passed. If they have a big partner, the partner will probably want to make a number of changes (maybe just cosmetic, maybe to save some money) to fit it into their product line. It's going to have to go back to the FDA anyway. I'm no expert on FDA approvals, but I have a hard time believing that they will have to go back to the FDA for cosmetic changes. I will defer to others to answer this. So, in the end, the reason I'm short on this one is because I think this stock has been overhyped and the company is more in it for a big short term blip in its stock price than for the long term. I don't understand what you are saying here. If you believe there is going to be a "big short term blip", why are you short now? Why not wait for the "blip"? Finally, I also think you are being very short sighted in not recognizing the other uses for the Colormate. The recent release on the dermatological tests is one. Another potential use, which has been mentioned previously on the thread is in dental offices to match tooth color for caps, crowns, etc. Ask your dentist if a device that scientifically and automatically matched tooth color would help him in his practice. I asked my dentist (as well as others) and his face literally lit up with a big smile and he said that would be fantastic. OK, I recognize that CCSI does not yet have a dental Colormate, but after all, we're buying potential here, and I believe there is a high likelihood that the dental potential will be realized. I also recognize that since extensive clinicals and FDA approval will not be required for the dental usage, we will probably face more competition in that area. But I also believe that since the company has received FDA approval for the device in another area, it will have a credibility and marketing advantage over the competition. I welcome any other thoughts. Jim

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: Cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5736

I disagree with your comment. "If a big company (like Abbott, Johnson & Johnson, HP, etc) wanted a product to measure bilirubin noninvasively they could develop it (without infringing on any CCSI patents) in a year for $10-20 million. So, that's what I think CCSI is worth." Large companies are sales oriented and aggressively seek to buy rather than develop products. By doing this they save time, reduce risk and increase the efficiency of their sales force. On the other hand it is very feasible for a small company to develop such a product as long as they have the financial backing to undertake a 3 year project. The value of a product increases in stages; idea, prototype, finished product, approved product, with sales, etc.. I have personally been through this several times and have a good feeling about CCSI. I feel sure that Darby is making every effort to secure a deal prior to the May 1, meeting in order to allow the new partner the opportunity to be in on the kickoff of the product at such an important meeting. I do appreciate your comments. Regards Harry

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Maxwell Smart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5736

Actually it would not surprise me to see a 'DEAL' announced. However, I also believe that once the fine print is read, the longs will be seriously disappointed it the amount of real revenue that it will generate. Just my opinion.

To: jpbrody who wrote (1739)	4/16/1998 7:17:00 PM
From: Webster Groves	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5736

Before we all go to war again, I wanted you to know that I appreciated your posts explaining your position. To paraphrase someone who won't be born for 300 years, I found your conclusions to be quite logical, given the apparent situation and your assumptions. But what happens if your assumptions are wrong? Soon CCSI will no longer be a gedanken experiment. We will see that God does not throw dice, and the results should be quite deterministic. -wg