To: Andreas Helke who wrote (593 ) 4/18/1998 11:10:00 PM From: Rocketman Read Replies (2) | Respond to
I've been hearing for 6 years now how INCY can't do it, won't grow more, the market is saturated, the competition will kill them, no one will do non-exclusive deals, that they are overpriced, etc, etc, etc.... Funny how the revenues, profits and stock price consistently have gone up over those 6 years. There will always be prophets of doom and gloom regarding INCY. Most of them don't understand what the company has and does and how driven they are. They are no where near market saturation, and keep expanding the product base and raising their prices on their products and the BIG PHARMAS keep coming back for more. Of course, many of the big pharmas are clueless as to how to exploit genomics, but once some of the early players show the competitive advantages that they have gained through genomics (which they are in no hurry to show to the competiton and would rather keep secret), then the ones who have been slow adopters and stuck with the NIH (NOT INVENTED HERE) Syndrome, and mired in classical pharmacological approaches to pharma discovery and development, they too will either jump on, be left behind or perish. This is a business in quantum evolution and if you can't make the leap, you will become obsolete. Dinosaurs once ruled the planet, but they didn't make the leap when the environment changed. The successful pharmas of the future will be ones who will change with the environment and not stick with the classical approaches. Another risk to pharmas not accessing the databases is: what if you spend lots of time and money developing a molecule, only to find that INCY filed for a patent on it in 1993, in a patent application, which is still mired at the PTO, but which ultimately will issue. You'll be trying to negotiate a license after the fact when INCY holds all the cards rather than before the fact when all INCY wants is a percent or two. IMHO the revenue increases will be from across the entire platform, dbase subscriptions, licenses for molecules, arrays, additional services such as bioinfo specialists on site at the Pharmas, diagnostics, and ultimately royalty streams. This started as a tiny snowball rolling down the mountain and is now a giant snowball soon to start an avalanche. My bet is that the growth continues unchecked. Keep in mind that the INCY model is not to be an Intel, but a Microsoft, the operating system for genomics research for the next millenium.
