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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4078)	4/16/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Steve, Why on earth are you so pessimistic? Is it your disappointment over the losses on your option position? I've also been bitten on options. When will I ever learn ... When AGPH was trading in the low 40's last fall I bought a bunch of February's at that price ... and lost virtually everything on those trades ... then when the stock went down to 30 I bought May calls ... and am holding a small paper profit. Besides the punishment in the stock market, the AGPH story seems very, very strong to me. The only concern I have is there "smart money" that knows something I don't know. Like when the stock was pounded last fall before the Thymitaq termination / Roche withdrawal ... someone knew something that most of the rest of us didn't. Viracept is holding up well, the PI market is growing. Kent Snyder and his team know exactly what's going on in their market ... I didn't get the same impression you did from the con call. The product is approved in lots of markets, but pricing is not negotiated in all the countries. Perhaps Kent could have given an update on the key European markets, specifying exactly where they are at. What's the big deal over the lack of an in-licensed product? There's a lot of deals out there, but very few that would make compelling strategic sense. It takes an enormous amount of time to evaluate these deals, then to negotiate the deal. As far as I can tell, an in-licensed product is a nice to have, but not essential. AGPH was very low key in announcing their 3340 pivotals and the selection of 7088 as the Rhinovirus candidate. Maybe we could fault them there for not making a big splash ... the information they've presented indicates to me they are focusing their resources and putting their efforts behind what they think are extremely promising compounds. It gives me great confidence. So, they don't have a development / marketing partner for 3340. So what? Once again, these deals take tons of time to negotiate. And what's the rush. Does AGPH even need a marketing partner? My only residual concern, except for normal risk for the products under development, is what happens in 1999, with Amprenavir on the market. I'm not concerned about AGPH's ability to fund their ambitious development efforts, however, I don't know the impact of fully funding those efforts, expanded clinical expenses, and potential competitive impact from Amprenavir will have on AGPH earnings. It's too early to tell. But, I don't see any reason to think Viracept will fall off substantially in sales ... it's just too good of a product. I've been concerned about Fortovase, and according to Margie, IMS numbers don't show a significant increase in Fortovase + Indinavir sales over earlier Indinavir sales, nor a decrease in Viracept's market share. As far as I can tell, the PI market will continue to grow substantially in the US for the next several years, and Viracept will continue to be a very competitive entry. Add to that expanded distribution worldwide, and you have a product whose sales will increase for at least the next 4 or 5 quarters, and probably for some time after that. Peter