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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hal jordan who wrote (7152)	4/16/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

>>>From a logical point of view you are correct. However, we have speculative mania going on right now. This kind of situation never ends pretty. That is what I'm counting on. Just call it overt greed.<<< Why not wait until it shows some sign of ending? I recall the start of the year how many folks were saying that YHOO would fall, just because the folks with capital gains would sell on 1/2 because they would be able to defer the taxes for a year. Yahoo! was at 70 then. It's near 130 now. Why do you think it's near it's top? I'd rather short it at 100 when it's in a downtrend than to take a chance with topticking it at 130. I just have to much respect for my capital to take the risk of shorting high flyers anymore. There is too much absolute garbage running up in this speculative frenzy. Take a look at FINE for an example. I managed to short some at 5 25/32 today. Target of 4 1/2 or so. DRMD, PNDA, ENML, etc all go through these runs and I'm able to pocket 10-15% in no time because I know there is no siren song calling, no greater fool out there that will break me. Good luck top ticking the momentum monsters. I truly hope you'll do it. Barb

To: hal jordan who wrote (7152)	4/16/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

HJ, I can't agree more with Barb on this one. The speculative game can't go on forever, but it can certainly last longer than you can imagine and sustain (unless you are another one of those rich shorters who claim that they will wait patiently for their turn while taking a 500% paper loss). Anyone who predicted that yahoo! would be at 128 today 6 months ago would have been regarded maniac, and yet... Longs are clearly driven by greed now, but those who are so desperately wanting to short this issue is also absolutely DRIVEN BY GREED. It will be 100 fold safer to short this issue when a clear down trend is formed than shorting at current level. Why risk getting hammered for 30+ points for a several more point gain? This is also indeed insane. I am currently still long Yahoo! but have reduced my position to a level that I won't care if it drops 20 points a day. I will sell it whenever I see a SELL signal and immediately go short. good luck, larry!