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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (15445)	4/17/1998 7:10:00 AM
From: robnhood	Respond to of 18056

Hi tek, I think eveyone is still here. MMV, is off on a venture like you have been, and the bears are getting skinny of late. Q: How many investors does it take to change a light bulb? A: None - the market has already discounted the change. russell

To: tekgk who wrote (15445)	4/17/1998 7:13:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 18056

Actually two editorial cartoons have appeared in our local paper in the last two weeks that make fun of the height of the market. One showed an elevator cage shooting out through the roof of a skyscraper and the guys inside saying, "Too late to get out--we're in it for the long haul." The other one showed a little girl labeled "Market" sitting in the lap of Santa Claus who is saying, "No, Virginia, there is no such thing as a bear market."

To: tekgk who wrote (15445)	4/17/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Respond to of 18056

Tek, I hope to put some of my thoughts together this weekend a I for one will be anxious to hear your thoughts. Jack

To: tekgk who wrote (15445)	4/17/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 18056

Re: "it's time to revisit the market mania and think about when it will finally end. I hope to put some of my thoughts together this weekend and have some of the old crowd poke holes in my thinking ..." Don't forget about your "projection" of DJIA at 10,200 (do I remember the number correctly?). I still think you may have identified the magic mania number when you made the comparison of US market now to the Japanese market in '89. Best wishes, I2

To: tekgk who wrote (15445)	4/18/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Tek, I am still here. Short on time as well, however, late in March, I suggested that it may take two weeks post the end of the Japanese Fiscal year end, before the Nikkei start its swooning again, and expected this to be followed by the rest of the SEA market. Well, the two weeks have lapsed, and I would say that the Nikkei is swooning and that the SEA markets are also heading generally south. It may take another few weeks before these facts reach our shores (those slow pigeons <g>), but I suspect that renewal of the SEA malaise will finally get our market in a little vertigo (I was expecting a stronger decline after the report on our record trade deficit, but it was mild). Having said this, I do not expect in the near future (to the end of July) to see prices below 8250-8300 on the dow. There is simply too much money sloshing around. Furthermore, if we get such a decline it will, IMHO, rapidly turn around and probably retest if not exceed the current new highs. Long term, my thesis has not changed, we are still in a secular bull market, driven by a constant increase in the size of the consumer society, the diversion of national resources from defense to other fields, low inflation environment, balanced budgets ( that cause demand for our long term paper to exceed the supply) and as a result, huge amounts of liquidity. Now, to add on these fires, we have a big bang going on in Japan (actual greens will not reach our shores, probably until autumn, or even winter), which even if it causes only a trickle of 2% per year of funds in the "Postal" to pour another $200 billions in liquidity worldwide. I think the dipsters will be winners for a little longer, and maybe quit longer. Zeev