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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (32199)	4/17/1998 8:41:00 AM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter, guess they're just bad dawgs (g) .... after reading the Nikkei article I went back and checked out where MU stands in the 64 ramp ... sparked in part by frothing-at-the-mouth antics of noted bad dog LD. This is what I came up with ... anybody with additional info please chip in. Data is monthly production in 64 Mbit units. MU : current,0.7 million (Feb Q) ..... ramp to 5.7 million units by the August quarter NEC : current, 5.0 million ... 10.0 million by 12/98 Japan Inc.: current, 17.5 million ... 40.0 million by 12/98 (this is NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi, Fujitsu & Mitsubishi) Samsung : current, 7.5 million (10x MU's current rate)... don't know ramp plans ... maybe they're out of money LG Semicon: current, 2.0 million .... ramp unknown Hyundai : current, 1.8 million .... ramp unknown Taiwan, Inc. : ???????????? Now if you need 4 64 Mbit parts for a standard 32 Mbyte memory and w/w production of PCs is approx. 100 million .... crunch, crunch ... 400 million parts in total. Japan Inc. alone will be running at a 480 million rate by the end of this year. Then you have the Koreans, which includes the world's largest memory guy, the Taiwanese and MU. Plus of course people will still be producing 16 Mbit parts. Somehow I can't get this to add up to balanced supply/demand or, as DJ would hint (funny how he missed the Nikkei article ... guess he's only human), more demand than supply going in to '99. Maybe someone can kick holes in my math ... I would genuinely like to know what's wrong with this reasoning. I mean even if everybody switches to 64 Mbyte memories there's still too much supply. Conclusion ... it ain't to get better, it's going to get worse until some major players drop out. And that doesn't mean Hitachi or whoever taking their chips off the table in Europe or closing some obsolete 16 Mbit fab that should have been closed down 2 years ago. One other thought ... MU's embarking on a tremendous ramp in 64 parts (cause they have to catch up to the rest of the world). What will this do to their yields over the next 2 quarters? Remember way back Infrastructure saying that 16-to-64 would be a lot more difficult than 4-to-16. Plus they haven't had the time to get ready that they had in the last cycle ... 4 Mbit had an unusually long life-span and 16 Mbit has been shorter than usual. regards, Mike