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To: Smart Investor who wrote (10229)	4/17/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Robert Sievers	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 27307

I have been on this thread since 3000, and I have heard the same arguments many times. Since my last questions continued to go unanswered, I'll throw out a new one. Go look at the Nasdaq top 10 stocks traded by dollar volume. 1. YHOO 2. SEEK 3. INTC 4. MSFT What's wrong with this picture?

To: Smart Investor who wrote (10229)	4/17/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: PeterGx	Respond to of 27307

<<The search engine companies are also very risky. Basically, they are in a business with very low entry barrier. Anybody can start such a business. Who is to say that Microsoft will not start a division devoted to search engine if there is money to be made ? >> The OS companies are also very risky. Basically, they are in a business with very low entry barrier. Anybody can start such a business. Who is to say that IBM will not start a division devoted to OS if there is money to be made ? You've heard of LYNUX, right? A couple of grad students/hackers (for the sake of argument)developed a pretty good OS easily - anyone can do the same.. Short MSFT!

To: Smart Investor who wrote (10229)	4/17/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: RDH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27307

Absolutely. This is so clear. Brand name recognition. Really meaningless here. Take Coca Cola -- why can't anyone enter the cola business -- it's only sugar, carbonated water and a little caffeine and flavor? The problem is in distribution. There is no meaningful distribution barrier to a new search engine site. Brand names mean little at present -- same with customer loyality. And what does YHOO charge? Nothing. It does advertise, but so does CBS. Well, YHOO be bigger than CBS? How? Yet, the stock price of YHOO is pricing in a domination of some sort. Let's try to imagine the future. Web-sites well be a super-interactive TV. Search engines will be like a 3D movie. Don't expect the early companies in any industry to survive. Look at the car industry. Look at the restaurant industry. Also, the giants come out of left fields sometimes. Look at IBM edging into computers (from typewriters, etc). I don't think any of the fledging computer manufacturers of those times are still around. People who expect YHOO to automatically hold its number one position (in an industry that is growing this rapidly)-- well, these people are ignoring past history. Look for MSFT to jump in once YHOO has spent enough money to prepare the way. Expect Netscape to make one dying gasp at survival by creating it's own search engine (currently the Netscape search does not include YHOO). What about WEBTV? If you think what you see now is what we will see 5 years from now, you may be in for a suprise! - RDH

To: Smart Investor who wrote (10229)	4/17/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: Winter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

>>The search engine companies are also very risky. Basically, they are in a business with very low entry barrier. Anybody can start such a business<< Yep, these companies are priced for the rosey internet growth scenarios like each one of them is going to carve up a majority share of the pie. What they are not counting on is other big players joining the fray. Things change much too fast with the net to make projections years in advance. And people aren't that loyal to particular sites, I've switched which search engine I use several times in the past few years. That leaves us with no real way to value these companies so the price is determined basically by supply and demand and not by any real valuation methods. Sooner or later the earnings will not pan out as expected and then the valuations will be adjusted accordingly.