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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Vinman who wrote (18876)	4/17/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

Vinman - LRCX reported that push outs are just beginning While that is technically correct (they did write that pushouts are beginning), it doesn't mean what you are implying - that pushouts are going to get worse, or that the duration is going to be a lot longer than one quarter. If you listen to the conference call you hear that they are unsure how long this downturn is going to last, but they are reasonably sure that it will last at least 1 more quarter. Hence the word 'beginning'. As for AMAT being a bargain at these levels - it depends entirely on your timeframe. Over the next 3-4 months, maybe, maybe not. Over the next two years (assuming no macro-economic hiccup), almost certainly it is a 'bargain'. Clark

To: The Vinman who wrote (18876)	4/17/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: Bong Lewis	Respond to of 70976

so 32 is a bargain to you? i have reviewed its growth rate, PE, profit magin, return of equity, cash flow, etc., with its industry, i feel amat is clearly reasonable at 35. Too bad that i sold it at 37 when i bought it at the dip 27 solely chicken out of the ASIA affect and hope that it may go back to 27. I dont have time to monitor the market so i can buy back amat below 35, but unfortunatly if it go down to 30, i would buy more. I never buy every thing at once and reserve some cash for further 10% falling back. I dont like to chase stocks have gone up with the market. I buy AMAT based on its fundamental, products, leadership, management and valuation. I dont mind if it drops to 32 or lower. I have been in this situation before.

To: The Vinman who wrote (18876)	4/18/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: Joe Sabatini	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

What the heck is the market going to do over the next few months? We know that earnings are going to be pretty poor overall. If investors continue to push up valuations in the hopes that earnings will be great in the 3rd and 4th quarters, we could be setting up for some major downside in the second half of the year. This would be especially true is inflation begins to show itself. Companies are very reluctant to raise prices. In fact the trend is to lower prices because competition is so fierce. There is only so much pie to go around, and the pie isn't growing as fast as some may think. In addition, in my opinion, productivity gains will not be able to offset problems with demand and currency issues. The current interest rate environment is like an oasis in the desert. How's that for an analogy? Opinions / responses welcome. Joe S.