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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: xinna Shi who wrote (5428)	4/17/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: bgg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6980

Listend to the CC. Heard House provide a laundry list of customers evaluating free-of-charge, seed Accelar units and calling all of them "penetrations" into Cisco accounts... Hmmm.... It all came off a bit amateurish. It was like: "well, this may be bad, but gee, look at this, and this, and this, and this ..." Too bad hardly any of his examples means real revenue. My perspective on Bay: 23% or so of their revenue is in shared media hubs -- a rapidly shrinking market. Another huge portion is tied to stackable products -- at least there's growth, but the prices are crashing. For all the hype you read in the trade rags, the market for Gigabit Ethernet is NOTHING compared to the market for Fast Ethernet, where demand still grows rapidly. Most organizations are catching up to the switching wave, let alone massively deploying a untested, non-standard technology. Heck, the gigabit ethernet standards body still has to figure out how to transmit over any meaningful distance over certain wires. In this industry, a "hot" technology hasn't truly arrived until the industry press suggests that its dead. Bay is expecting far too much, far too soon from its Accelar product line. If the Enterprise world were full of IP-only shops, then maybe a different story. No matter how you slice it, Bay's quarter was awful. Pricing pressures combined with a lot of focus and reliance on a product that is at least a year away from hitting it big (of course, by them everyone else will be in the game when it counts). In the meantime, Bay's router sales get frozen as customers try to decide what to do. Not a good position. Bay will live off of its nice install base, but won't show any significant growth for awhile... and you'll still see nice looking ads on national TV that costs millions of dollars and are most likely completely ineffective.