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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: shlomi cohen who wrote (1130)4/18/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: hal jordan  Respond to of 1998
 
Hi Shlomi,

What do you think the odds are of Fujitsu buying Orckit? I've been tracking xDSL stocks for over two years now, and I think a sector rotation into ADSL may begin early to late summer.

Hal



To: shlomi cohen who wrote (1130)4/18/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: srvhap  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1998
 
In-depth news analysis

pubs.cmpnet.com

Working On The Universal Appeal Of ADSL

By Kelly Jackson Higgins Universal ADSL (asymmetrical digital
subscriber line) technology is touted as a way to pull information
from the Internet at speeds of anywhere from 64 Kbps to 1.5
Mbps, and push at rates between 32 Kbps and 512 Kbps. Its
promise is so great that major industry players have put their
shoulders into the effort of bringing a standard to market
through the new Universal ADSL Working Group, which is
developing an ADSL "lite" standard that could bring "always on"
Internet to a PC near you. Among Universal ADSL's supporters
are Alcatel, Cisco Systems, Compaq Computer Corp., Ericsson
Telecom, GTE Corp., Intel Corp., Lucent Technologies, MCI,
Microsoft Corp., Northern Telecom, Rockwell Semiconductor
Systems, Sprint, Texas Instruments, 3Com Corp. and all five
regional Bells.

In an interview with Network
Computing, John Cahill, co-chair
of the Universal ADSL Working
Group and executive director of
BellSouth's advanced networking
division, talks about the challenges
and opportunities awaiting
Universal ADSL, which will be
based on the existing ANSI
T1.413 specification, as well as
BellSouth's strategy for rolling out
ADSL services to consumers and
businesses.

What is the significance of the
mix of players who initiated the
Universal ADSL Working Group? Compaq, Intel and Microsoft initiated
meetings with the regional Bells to float this idea. To accelerate the ADSL
market, we realized mutually that we needed players from both the PC
industry and the telco service provider industry. Just the telcos or the PC
companies couldn't make ADSL happen end to end. This is probably
unprecedented. I was quite surprised at the enormous response we had from
all of these players to define specifications and come up with an end-to-end
solution. The recent history with ISDN and 56K [modem technology] was
probably fresh enough in everyone's minds that they realized the benefits of
this alliance and what it would take to pull this off. We see Universal ADSL
as being complementary to and interoperable with the ANSI T1.413
standard, which is what the Joint Procurement Consortium [JPC] based its
purchases on with Alcatel for full-rate ADSL.

Will you explain BellSouth's ADSL strategy? We've got a trial in
Birmingham, Ala., with connections to multiple ISPs, including BellSouth.Net
and www.isp, and we are evaluating products. We are introducing the latest
versions of ADSL hardware and software that Alcatel is releasing in the next
few months. We are evaluating our cost points, defining our service
descriptions and developing a marketing plan for ADSL. We haven't finalized
our deployment plans yet--we are trying to take into consideration where
Universal ADSL is going. There ultimately will be two versions of ADSL--a
consumer, mass-market ADSL (Universal ADSL) and a higher-speed,
higher-quality-of-service and higher-priced, business-oriented ADSL service.
There will be different classes of service, where you pay for value as you
move up the chain.

What are some of the challenges in developing Universal ADSL? We
need to decrease the power, speed and available throughput, with the
ultimate goal being to reduce the need for a splitter device at the user site for
voice and data traffic. I don't know if we can eliminate the splitter altogether.
That depends on the inside wiring and, in some cases, the phone installed.

What has inhibited DSL deployment thus far? One thing is the cost of
the CPE [customer premises equipment]--the modem the user needs to get
connected. The other is the complexity of an ADSL service, which has
inhibited mass deployments by telcos and other service providers. Now,
when we go to install ADSL, we need to do a loop qualification [to make
sure the lines are fit for ADSL].

With one common Universal ADSL standard all these manufacturers can use,
modem prices can decrease. Then users can go to any retail store, buy an
ADSL modem, plug it into their PC, call us up and say, "I'd like ADSL
service." Then it's a matter of us doing a quick loop qualification and turning
on the service.

What does Universal ADSL mean to the cable-modem market? We
see cable providers as formidable competition. We want to target the existing
copper facility as an alternative to cable modems for Internet access. And
cable companies, too, have infrastructure issues, like deploying two-way
capabilities and the fact that the cable infrastructure is based on shared
bandwidth. The cable that goes by your house goes by thousands of other
houses as opposed to ADSL, which is point-to-point.

Ultimately, that point-to-point feature will let traveling business users access
their corporate LANs from home or the road through an ADSL connection.
This telecommuting and remote-access market is key for Universal ADSL.

What role will ADSL play in helping regional Bells like BellSouth
become major Internet service providers? It's important for the next
technology step. We are already in the ISP business with BellSouth.Net. We
see ADSL access becoming ubiquitous across our region, which may take
three to four years to happen. And we are heavily committed to
BellSouth.Net.

Will the Universal ADSL Working Group and ADSL Forum work
together? There are a lot of the same members in each group. The ADSL
Forum is addressing other issues, like end-to-end connectivity. I see the two
groups working together very closely. The working group is putting together
reference documents for interworking and frameworks for ADSL, and then,
ultimately, we will disband and you might see the ADSL Forum doing
interoperability and high-level architecture work.

Will widespread adoption of Universal ADSL spell the demise of
ISDN services? And do the emerging Always On/Dynamic ISDN
(AO/DI) services that BellSouth and other regional Bells plan to roll
out this year compete directly with Universal ADSL? ISDN BRI has
additional capabilities around voice, such as for supporting faxing and other
voice lines. It's a higher-end service. And ISDN is available today virtually
everywhere in the region. ADSL may, however, replace ISDN totally for
Internet access--but that will take at least two to three years to happen. We
continue to evaluate options for our current service offerings, including AO/DI
ISDN. Eventually, the ADSL and AO/DI products may collide, and then we
will make the right market and economic decision for our services.

What is the Universal ADSL Working Group's timetable for
delivering a specification? We were delivering a high-level specification to
the International Telecommunications Union [ITU] in February and will have
a final draft at the ITU's next meeting this summer. Universal ADSL, or
G.Lite, is going to be based on the existing T1.413 specification.



To: shlomi cohen who wrote (1130)4/28/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: savolainen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1998
 
[cc]

hi shlomi and all,

know you and others not in the usa, may not have ready access to the cc replay so here are some highlights...

first, am still not sure that analysts are really picking up entirely on what is going on... will probably just take some time... know it was a "bad day" on monday, but remarkably few questions on the cc considering...

highlights (new info) from cc:

- dt was mentioned for adsl/vdsl/hdsl... orctf is in the running for all three...
- orctf/fujitsu gte win seems to be opening doors in the usa.. providing momentum
- gte sounds big... concurrent deployment in 16 states... not one state at a time...
- virata will be long term relationship, new product to orctf's spec's

have taken up rough paraphrasing/transcription, so will give topic and then "notes":

update on dt (adsl):

"dt published a tender at the end of 97 ...for supplying a limited quantity of links about few hundred for a trial.... we were selected together with two other co's... later on we supplied a quantity... and the other co as well... it was a major achievement for orctf... experience went very,very well... dt is now moving into a large scale deployment... they have published tender and probably the submission of the tender is in the very near future... and i believe there are going to be results in a few mo's..."

update on dt (vdsl):

"dt published vdsl tender a few months ago for a very limited quantity... and we were selected there along with fujitsu japan... not the same fujitsu that we are working with in the us... don't expect large scale deployment of vdsl in 98... lots of small field trials, lab trials (?) and discussion with the telecom co's.. i believe we will start to see signs of the market next year..."

(this is the first i've heard of orctf working with fujitsu for equipment outside of the usa... interesting that it is for vdsl and also interesting that it was not siemens... and also interesting that it is another branch of fujitsu altogether.... would guess that this would have something to do with the specific product/application in question)

update on dt (hdsl):

"european hdsl growing....irrespective of the growth of adsl... growth of hdsl is around 30%.. major opportunity in the near future is dt... last carrier to adopt hdsl... all the other carriers in europe have already deployed hdsl... so you can't.. depend(?)on existing growth which is 30%... not too many new customers... new potential customers are dt and eastern countries... turkey.. poland and others.... we are competing in all of these tenders... if we were selected by dt it would be a major achievement.. but it still is in the process of tenders.. the eastern european co's quantities more limited than dt, but is still potential growth..."

gte:

"gte published that they are going to put the equipment in 300 co ... this is very agressive and i think they will meet it... i cannot disclose the numbers... i believe they will stand behind...their formal presentation..

.... fujitsu is building all the technical support to make it happen ... it is going to be large scale... it is not going to be one small state at a time and see how it works and then continue... we are preparing it on large scale... concurrent deployment in 16 states...."

virata:

"virata developed a very good atm technology... we started to work with them in two european accounts... and when the technology worked very well and was one factor in our success... we decided to enter with them into discussion for long term relationship... they will develop their products based on our specifications and based on our direction ... signed agreement last week, but have been working with them for the last 6 mo's in a very successful way ..."

questions (and followups) that were not asked:
- silicon update for adsl/vdsl/hdsl2?
- any info on g.lite progress, silicon or other?...
- how will modems/nics be handled for gte and other?... (long term)
- how will gte schedule affect margins?
- how will gte affect revenues (timeframe)?

- what is the relationship between orctf and fujitsu japan?.. and which vdsl-related products are involved/being developed? (set-top boxes?)
----
back to your comments re secondary:

how do you see orctf using the $ from the secondary (should it happen)?
if tamir and paneth sell portions, how much do you expect them to keep? in other words... will we still have significant management ownership?
any and all info appreciated when you have the time...

thanks
s