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Technology Stocks : INFOSEEK (GO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grasshopper who wrote (4218)	4/18/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: cm	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9343

Welcome Back, 'Hopper... Wondered where you'd hopped off to. Wish I'd been as smart as you on the calls... nice play. But, as you know, I'm pretty much a stick-in-the-mud, garden-variety SEEK long. (Yes, and ITVU has been sweet, hasn't it?) $41...? Hmmmm. Let's just review where we are: * Run-up was no doubt fueled by surge in other engines like CMGI (LCOS's part owner) and XCIT. We got a lot of hot money trying to chase down the "new thing." XCIT announced its earnings, which were good by any measure, then a VC group sells off. Thus, putting a chill in the air. * SEEK's historic run-up--did you see the volumes and note that we were #1 in volume on at least one of those days?--was also fueled by its purchase of WBS, a really nifty chat-room community that appeals to a younger demographic. As Steve Harmon (who I only occasionally quote when it serves me to do so) pointed out, the SEEK WBS purchase was a fricking steal of a deal. More eyeballs. Lots of folks lingering in the chat rooms. Better for advertisers. Wonderful development. * SEEK's run was also marginally fed by the announcement of its new server product (this area accounting for 6-8% of last year's revenues.) * Plus, as you know, on the 23rd after close, we've got an earnings announcement. So, there's some speculation surrounding that as well. * Stuff still hanging in the air includes: 1. The state of NSCP negotiations: will seek pay to play on NSCP's new portal? Will NSCP even have a new portal? Does SEEK still need NSCP? 2. Remember SEEK's SPO, grossing $40 million? That money's probably earned some interest this quarter, don't you think? 3. SEEK wasn't quiet this week. They delayed their earnings announcement... orginally slated I think for 4/17. Too much smoke und sturm und drang surrounding XCIT. Are we being set up for an earnings surprise? I do strongly think so. 4. I also STRONGLY FEEL that there's another purchase--maybe another online community--sitting out there in the news pipeline. This is just a feeling. A hunch. Rank speculation. 5. Is there a perception among the serious institutional investor crowd that the search engine "story stocks of 1998" have had their day? Overbought? My guess is NO. Many institutions/money managers/mutual funds missed the YHOO boat and other Web-related profits. Plus, when you remember that a full $1.7 billion dollars of individual investor money got plunked into mutual funds last month, that's got to go somewhere. And I think the whole concept of e-commerce--and how search engines play into that--is getting wide coverage. 6. YHOO! pulled a fade right before its earnings. I think it was a retail fade, because the MM's held firm (IMHO). Then YHOO, god bless Jerry Yang, popped the big surprise... some of which were earnings from investments, as I recall. And, boom, it's back over $120. (Yes, SEEK isn't YHOO or XCIT for that matter, but there is a connection being made in some folks' minds.) 7. There's a SEEK/Deutsche Telekom Memorandum of Understanding still hanging out there. Look for details... or a contract... that might happen soon. I'd certainly like to see it. * Bottom line, 'Hopper, I'd hold... but I would wouldn't I because I like the LONG picture...? 41 will be 70 within a year... but, that maybe too long a timeframe for you. Don't apply my judgement. You're way, way smart and quick and have a good eye for in-and-out opportunities... I envy that. Hope This Helps, c m