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Technology Stocks : CRUS, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Gambler who wrote (5609)4/18/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Jan A. Van Hummel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8193
 
Gambler

Sorry to address you as a gambler because I don't have your real name.

It does not hurt to stir things up a bit.

I am not contending anything about Mr. Teo and am not trying to paint
him in any light, negative or positive, because I don't know him and certainly
know nothing about his intentions. I can only make my own interpretation
of what information we all have or have access to.

From the plethora of posts in the last few months it seems there is the
feeling that because there is a big investor he must have some insights
most of us have not.

Of one thing I am sure. Had Mr. Teo known that the stock would drop back
to 10 after he just finished spending $70 - 80 million between $13 and
$16 a share, he would either have waited and started buying now, or he might
have stayed away. This aside from the possibility that his very buying
may well have prevented the stock from dropping earlier than it did.

It is my opinion that he entered this venture based on certain assumptions
he made (and only he knows) expecting that at the level he bought he was
setting up a solid base to reap future benefits. He is certainly not in the
charity business to make other shareholders happy by keeping the price up.

I trust you will grant me this argument that had he known he could buy the stock
much cheaper by waiting, he would have waited, but he did not.

It is also my opinion that had his average cost been around the current trading range
or if the stock were trading at or near his average cost he would probably not have
enlarged his share as he is doing now.

The one best thing in his favor is time. He can wait it out and at some
point in time when this segment of the market will recover, and recover it
eventually will, chances are that he not only will recover his cost but
will also make a decent return.

The only thing that can go wrong is that management cannot steer CRUS back
on track and we will all bear the consequences if that were to occur.

It could well be that by enlarging his holdings Mr. Teo not only wants
to bring down his cost but also to exercise a greater influence on the
ongoings at CRUS even though he stated in his SEC filing that that was
not his intend.

To assume, the message inherent on many of the posts, that everything is
going for Mr. Teo as planned is absurd. He has a lot at stake and his current
actions are dictated by the position he found himself in after the stock
declined precipitously.

If I were in his position I would work at lowering my cost and increasing
my influence on management to ensure my investment does not go down the
drain altogether. While he originally might have thought about a long-term
investment for a great return, I am sure his more immediate concern is
not to lose what he has tied up already and may well exit once he has the
opportunity to get out unscathed.

Perhaps you don't see it this way and that is OK. However, the fact you may
not like or share this viewpoint does not mean it could not be valid.

JMHO

Jan

(my real name, not a Phantom one)



To: The Gambler who wrote (5609)4/19/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Frank Povoski  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8193
 
Jan,
It is very simple.
Teo took his own money (he hold much in trust for Tax reasons) and invested in a company he felt has a great future and lots of value.
He still feels that, but is upset with management. HE will be on the BoD soon and will fix the management issues. He obviously cannot exit his investment until he fixes things, since any liquidation on his part unless the stock is under accumulation with actually cause the stock to go down further. The semi story and the CRUS story will change dramatically, but the question is when. I firmly believe that Micron, CRUS and other that have fallen on hard times will again appreciate dramatically, the question is when. It looks that the ASIAN thing has pushed thing out a year, but 1999 we could see multi-years high in many of these companies.