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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert Graham who wrote (670)4/26/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: HeyRainier  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1720
 
[ Comment on Market Analysis ]

That was a well thought-out post, and needless to say, it was excellent. I wanted to add a quote from a recent text I acquired, It was a Very Good Year: Extraordinary Moments in Stock Market History. It has to do with what you mentioned about the "liquidity driven market" that we are currently in. The quote is a forward-looking observation made from 1995:

"...Looking ahead, the most likely formula for the next Very Good Year emerges from the pattern of the two most recent occurrences: Stock prices begin at a depressed level, reflecting fears that inflation-conscious central bankers will inflict more pain. Suddenly, a financial crisis (RT: he might have been thinking of a domestic one, but Asia might count) reduces the price level to a secondary public policy consideration. As the Fed liquifies the system, the stock market quickly and radically adjusts to the changed circumstances. In their eagerness to prevent a meltdown, the monetary authorities unavoidably give stock investors a windfall.

When a huge volume of credit suddenly enters the U.S. financial system, whether through Fed action or as a result of some other nation's central bank policy, it must find an outlet. On several occasions during the twentieth century, capital markets have provided that outlet. In these situations, inflation has occurred in financial assets, rather than in goods and services. The phenomenon has been well documented by renowned interest rate observer James Grant, who credits the related theoretical insights to the so-called Austrian school of economics..."

Regards,

Rainier