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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (19791)	4/20/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 95453

Monday April 20 2:27 PM EDT Iraq Says U.S. Seeks 'New Crisis' Over Arms BAGHDAD, Iraq (Reuters) - An Iraqi newspaper accused the United States on Monday of trying to manufacture a new crisis between Iraq and U.N. weapons inspectors over alleged weapons of mass destruction. "The statement made by American Defense Secretary William Cohen in Turkey shows that (U.S. President Bill) Clinton's administration is heading toward manufacturing a new crisis," the ruling Baath party newspaper al-Thawra said. The paper said that Iraq had met all its obligations in terms of U.N. resolutions on the 1991 Gulf War and the Security Council should lift its trade embargo imposed in response to Baghdad's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. On Tuesday Cohen visited Turkey's Incirlik air base where U.S. warplanes police a "no-fly" zone over northern Iraq and said the world must maintain pressure on Iraq over its alleged arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. Cohen spoke after a U.N. report said inspectors had made virtually no progress over the past six months in verifying that Iraq had destroyed any remaining weapons of mass destruction after the Gulf war, a key condition for lifting sanctions. Al-Thawra said Cohen's statement and those of U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and chief U.N. arms inspector Richard Butler proved that there were "wicked American intentions to create a new crisis." Butler, an Australian diplomat heading the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) charged with disarming Iraq, said in the report, obtained by Reuters and to be submitted to the Security Council, that his inspectors had made "virtually no progress" in six months. He also said in an interview published on Saturday that Baghdad had breached an agreement it signed in February with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. The accord resolved a four-month crisis between Iraq and UNSCOM over inspections of so-called "presidential sites" and averted possible U.S. military strikes against Iraqi targets. Iraq's Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf said in Cairo on Saturday before heading to New York that Butler's report on inspections was unfounded and he would present the facts to the United Nations.

To: SJS who wrote (19791)	4/20/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Steve, I am seeing the followings: 1. The water drillers are bounced off their upper BB today across the board. Many managed to trade outside their upper BB intraday but again this become ground for profit taking. The reverse is also true. We have seen this phenomenon repeating so many times with the drillers it has become a great intraday indication for bottom-fishing and profit-taking. BTW, almost all water drillers have a rather strange looking candles - five days of higher highs but with alternative color candle each day. I don't know if this is the question Marc asked earlier but I don't have an interpretation for this either. One thing however is that tomorrow will likely decide the trend for the next few days if not next week. If tomorrow we have a lower low and close down with a red candle, then the likelihood of a short term trend reversal is set. Ron's short term stochastics is not all the way up into 80% for all drillers yet but I'm not sure since his site has not been updated today. Ron - hope you are well! Some water drillers that slided pretty bad today include RIG, PDE and GLM. Not a good sign. 2. The land drillers are a different story. Actually there are only two land drillers making most of the noise and they are - PTEN and UTI. These two drillers have great followings and they receive the most mo-mo vote in either direction. Now the intermediate trend is very clear for these two - up. The are in the process of carving out a nice looking U. Net, their base-building process is almost over and unless we go into another big three month dip we should not see a double bottom with two big U's. Other drillers are not acting very well. They include BDI, NBR, PKD and GW. GW is very weak with low volume - sign that people are beginning to throw in the towel. 3. The fabs is the prized group among the oil services co's. Led by FGII and VRC, they are clearing out resistence like the good old time. The perception of $$ regardless of near term dayrate like what Big DOG had been preaching is taking hold. But it is interesting to see if FGII gets a follow-through tomorrow since BIG DOG advice taking profit after close today. My gut tells me that at least half of all FGII traders have BD bookmarked. So this is a serious call by one DOG. 4. Oil appears trapped in the $15-16 trading range. With earnings out one by one and most drillers either matched or beat earning by 1 penny, I think it is safe to say that the fear has been confirmed - the drillers are not making as much money as they were projected to be 6 months ago. Otherwise most drillers would be kicking ass by now since their current quarter earning estimates had been sliced by 5-30% in the last few months. Actually, kudos to the analysts who are pretty accurate this time around. 5. Writing covered calls is the lowest risk way to play the drillers - can't agree more. Nice counsil too on not writing call on FGII until FGII shows weakness because a mega $ deal announcement can easily shoot FGII above $40 towards their old high.