Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (17055)	4/22/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 94695

Oh no, don't say that, my tulips were just beginning to bloom. I wont be back into the puts til the trend reverses. Actually I don't feel my holdings are tulips, but in this market you wonder if things go up for the wrong reason, and they probably do. To answer the question you posed, I do not think a correction will be much worse than the numbers we have heard-- in fact we will probably see several whiplash buy the dip effects, and I cant see any of those dips being more than five percentage points of the dow. Maybe Nasdaq will go lower tho, say ten percent on dips. After several of those some of the fund owners will be a bit sick, they will finally start trading or bail--then comes the real volitility.

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (17055)	4/22/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Barbara; I've been about as bullish as any one on this thread, maybe not the most bullish but more than most. Now I'm more frustrated than anything..as I saw thin ice and pulled back..then we get on thinker ice..then we head back to the thin ice..and so I came all the way into Money Markets yesterday and it looks like she wants to still rocket up.. -------------------- Well calling tops I've always said is harder by far than calling a bottom.. ---------------------- I started something new and simple now along with my DOW head/tail thingy. Yahoo makes it easy for me to get the 25 Volume leaders, gainers, and losers, of the NYSE, AMEX, and NAZ..AND to down load them reasdy to go into a spread sheet. So taking them samples from the high volume..and the biggest gainers, and biggest losers, of the three major markets I can toss them in a work sheet and look at the MONEY FLOW..of this bunch.. ie gain or loss x volume = Money Flow..it goes beyound A/D and while I haven't finnished doing all I want with it.. I see it's got a lot of potenual.. ---------------------------------------- I can tell you with out a doubt in my mind the INDEXES are lieing right now..except for the Naz..money flow is out of the market.. today..or was early, this grabing Volume , HIGH , LOWS .. and suming them up by change x volume , take the result divided by the price average gives a percent up/down..based on the average stock price in the pool.. this is not just if the price of the issues went up or down it's showing the cash that changed hands positive or negitive in respect to an average price. Keep in mind an index can move up when thinly traded stocks move up more than the heavy traded ones move down. Did you not notice a negitive tick with the indexes going up today ? So an index does not always tell you if money is moving in or out of the market ..it can lead you to think the market is positive when in fact the heavy traded stocks are ticking down and thinly traded ones are offsetting that. This can inverse to.. ONE MORE TIME, NO ONE CAN DO TRADITIONAL TA on an INDEX, and not get fooled at least 50% of the time..the stuff you are TAing is garbage..and garbage in garbage out.. ----------------------------- The peak of any index may only be thanks to a few thinly traded stocks that shot up..and the bottom the inverse of that.. ---------------------- All this to say what I saw ( change x volume+sumed) today did not look real bad but it was a far cry from what the indexs said we did..I'm not short but I'm not long..just frustrated. Program trading has taken over the show.. Best place to have been in a general sense was on the NAZ under $8 stocks.. Something sure don't look right with the NYSE, and AMEX index.. by rights they should have gone down..I just wonder now with the super computers and built in artificial intelligence if they can't whip the indexes back and forth, by knowing just when to buy and sell the thinly traded stocks, and moving more volume but just the oposite in the heavy traded ones..as you do the thinly traded ones.. If I had my hands on one and access to making it trade automatically I could set it up to do just that..and to adjust to changes in the market conditions..actually get it to create thoes changes I wanted in the index..by pumping or dumping the thinest traded stocks of the day. I think I'v stumbled onto what the program trading is about, and we all seem to be at it's mercy..and it has none. IT's slowly killing the stock market..but like a cancer that won't really show itself untill it's to late. We are minnows about to have our plate cleaned by a mindless and super borg type computer program, and this is no joke. ------------------------- Unless we learn to do like the pilot fish and attach ourselves to the way it's trading..but it's soooo fassst in its' skiming we won't get many morsels..then it runs up volume..which is overhead it don't care if it gets just a 1/16th it'l take it on volume..so this super massive but short term trading by the brogs computer..skims value off the stocks that it treats as commodities..and these commodities have an overhead in them each time they change hands..the underlying issue must do better and better to offest that "nut" on it's shares..the longer term investor is paying for all this too.. There is no way to curtail it unless we put a tax on these super short trades one day they will be the cause of the whole system to wind up tanking. I fear not so much S.S. going broke..but every IRA..and 401K plan in the nation going belly up. Then what ? Jim