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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (2030)	4/22/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Geof Hollingsworth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

<As for Cisco and CIEN with AT&T, I think CIEN is doing trials already and I've been told they'll be players> Hi again Pat, Here's what I know/believe. There was a contract announcement in August of last year between AT&T and CIEN to deploy the CIEN 16-channel systems, and there is somewhere between $50 and $100 million of 1998 revenues in the consensus CIEN estimates from that contract. The head of AT&T's Transport Network Planning recently stated that they are still evaluating the 16 channel systems from a number of vendors, and that those systems have a number of new features (ATM and IP connectivity, for example) and haven't been in the lab very long. He also stated that 16 channels are nowhere near enough, and they have also announced that they will be trialing and deploying the Lucent 80-channel system, and they have also announced plans to deploy OC-192 SONET technology. Given that they already have 1000 or so WDM terminals deployed, they might delay implementation of 16-channel systems while waiting for some of the higher-capacity systems due out between now and year-end. It sounds to me as though there is more downside than upside to the AT&T relationship relative to the 1998 forecasts (i.e., more likelihood they will ship less than $50 million than there is that they will ship more than $100 mill.)

To: pat mudge who wrote (2030)	4/23/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Nilda Ovalles	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Pat: Regardng your question about CSCO and AT&T. As you know the phone cos. tend to issue RFP's to keep prices down and competition up, but I think that who ever gets another contract with AT&T needs to be comparable and teamwork with Ciena, as their products so far have the probability of being deployed. CSCO however, is so flexible and fast about offering new technology on demand, and so established that they might get the big part of the contract. Of course this is speculation on my part. CSCO competes with BAY, CABLETRON, ASCEND, but you probably know that already. Regards, Nilda.