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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Vinman who wrote (15268)	4/22/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

<<Hasn't it already? I think four days of double digit gains and and four records highs in a row could be considered kicking into gear Joe. COMS has stalled here and I think it will move down as the market corrects over the next couple of days, Microsoft conference call will be a catalyst for the market to move lower tomorrow. >> Yes, you're right, it has been strong. But the problem is that it should have corrected in the first two weeks of April, and the short little drops turned out to be the correction. That shows the strength of the market in general (also, the nirvana speculation of aol, yahoo, and Ktel confirm it in my opinion). Because of this, I think that there's still lots left, because people are waiting for MSFT cc (which I think will generally be OK), and they're also waiting for a little more of the bulk of the rest of earnings to come out (which I don't think are going to be any worse than we've seen). Banks and pharmaceuticals have done well, and it's looking like the E.Asia crisis is not as damaging as expected (some effect is still evident), but we've seen the worse and even a little bit of recovery by the banks. Just a guess, but they may be the leaders in forging a positive situation out of all the Asia muck. The real problem we've had is computer hardware oversupply, and this may take a while longer to sort out, but big cap techs are still cranking. So, my conclusion is what we've seen of late is just the Nasdaq holding back - and if that's holding back, then we may be in for real mania. A real exaggeration of the Nasdaq cranking is the big caps acting a little like the Yahoo's, etc. (I can't quite see this happening of course). I think we've already seen some mania in CSCO, DELL, and MSFT - man these prices have lifted more than I thought tye would in the last few days!! There may be a little profit taking tomorrow, I hope so, because I'll be a buyer of either of those three (I didn't get the chance I was looking for before). After profit taking, on to new ridiculous heights. I think the market is starting to accept the lower interest rate, low inflation premise more fully, and is more accepting of a speculative phase. (Small caps should confirm this). All, this will prop the Naz higher. Key to this also is the 30-year bond rate. I feel pretty confident on 30-year yields going down in a week from now since U.S. is not going to prop the Yen, and the BoJ is wasting their time trying to do it themselves. When yield rate goes down, it will just be more fuel to the fire. (By the way Japan will just prop up their stock index - so no need to worry about their so called recession for a while) The biggest problem I see is the FED raising rates later. HOPE NOT. If COMS drops, tomorrow for a while, it is because, shorts aren't scared enough. I wonder also, if the money that goes into the index 500 funds goes partly into COMS. If so, then I guess this is part of the buying pressure when the indexes go up? What do you think? I don't think institutional investors are still very interested in COMS at above 36 1/2. OK, Vinman, rip this theory apart - maybe I'll sell, and wait for it to go down to 32 again. Joe (IMHO disclaimer of course...)