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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: otter who wrote (5502)	4/24/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Mang Cheng	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6980

Ray, I can still remember, sometime last Sept, you gave a very sensible analysis of Coms and then you sold out before it crashed. I stayed with COMS due to a stupid buy-and-hold idea. Later on, everyone of your points about COMS turned out to be right ! I wish I had listened to you. But you seem to have jumped from one pot of boiling oil to another ! As to BAY, from $23 to $21 is the consolidation zone. In the slightly longer term, I think it will start to move up to $27. Mang

To: otter who wrote (5502)	4/24/1998 3:48:00 AM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6980

<< seems to me to be a relatively complacent approach >> Ray ... I have been in negotiations with various xDSL and cablemodem folks ... in both cases, they have not shown the thought patterns that go along with a sense of immediacy ... still a lot of "what if" and "wait and see" and "Let's get Mikey to try it". The rubber has not hit the road yet ... it's very early days (technology, marketing, infrastructure, mindset). When big chunks of money start flowing, the sense of complacency is apt to disappear overnight. I can't call the market to save my life ... but I'm betting on 50% - 100% increases in networkers, comm, xDSL, cable in the 12 - 24 month timeframe. I had hoped that BAY would show some reasonable numbers and be the place of choice to "hang out" waiting for the growth curve to kick in. Now I'm not so sure. I bought ASND at the low and sold at 37 ... don't want to reenter now ... CSCO is too plush for me ... so I'm shopping around ... holding my BAY until I understand a better choice. IOW ... my hit is that BAY is not all that bad a place to be if you're thinking long term. Could go to 15, may not, I haven't a clue ... but it will see 30 again ... and 35-40 at least when the xDSL/cable wave goes through. I'm not taking current xDSL/cable "sound bytes" very seriously now ... again, it's too early to forsee the winners ... and relating the actual winners to the perceived winners is simply impossible. I realize this doesn't answer your question ... unless perhaps it helps to remember that we are in the earliest days of the web curve ... I am thinking about ye olde days of playing D&D in the Microsoft boardroom ... the standard response when casting a Augury spell was "Those who survive will be rich ..." I've laid out the networkers, made my estimates of upside and down, ranked them in terms of risk-adjusted payoff ... and here I am ... holding BAY and continuing to evaluate. Bonne chance!