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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (19481)	4/23/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Steve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Okay, I'll add my unasked for prediction. The NDA will contribute to a spike in the price, but it will not break through 18 1/2. It will settle down around 17 - 17 1/2 during the following week and drift back down into the 16's. The real issue for the long termers is whether or not the NDA will lead to new analyst coverage and/or new institutional interest. Some asides: these so called swaps that Henry is referring to are a way of viewing two large block purchases in a reasonable fashion; many times a market maker will sell a large block of stock and then replace his inventory (or cover his exposed short sale) with a purchase from another market maker. Thus you would see one trade at 1/8 higher than the lowest ask at the time which is the 'retail' sale and another trade at the lowest ask which is a sale between market makers. The first mm profits the 1/8, and the second mm generates his asking price to be covered by smaller 'retail' purchases at the bid for his spread. It is still possible that both large blocks were 'retail' sales to an institutional buyer. If an order is placed for 50k shares, it is entirely reasonable that it would be filled with 25K at the lowest ask and 25K more at the next highest price. It could well be that yesterdays activity was a trading desk working a 100K order for an institution. There are numerous other permutations that would also hold possible. The reality is that we don't know exactly what transpired to create the trades that were recorded. I would say the odds are higher that the first explanation is accurate. I'd also like to defend the right of posters to make mistakes. I'd like to, but I won't, because it would undoubtedly start a thread of many messages that I'd rather not have to read or skip.

To: Henry Niman who wrote (19481)	4/23/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Jack Be Quick	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 32384

Henry, Very good point! Just because LGND closed at 16 1/8 on April 1, for instance, and is now trading around 14 9/16, there is no reason - ABSOLUTELY NONE - to think that LGND is "going to 14". What a baldfaced misrepresentation! Sure, in a general market meltdown LGND might hit 14 1/128, but 14??? NEVER!!! NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER! No, Bob Z. is right, what we are seeing is a significant upside move to $20, made in Ligand's characteristically innovative way. See how cleverly LGND is basing and swapping in order to move the price along. Only an inveterate naysayer, or worse, could fail to recognize and admit this obvious event. I would send a private message or private email to Bob to commend him on his perceptive analysis, but since he might naturally decide to publish it for me here publicly anyway, I'll save him the effort and state here myself: Bob, good call! Keep up the good work. Let's all hope that the misinformation that's been floating around here on this issue will finally be put down by your and Bob's vigilance. Best regards, John