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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (3021)	4/24/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Do you actually listen to conference calls or do you depend on reports from others? I found calls to 800 numbers from Australia were about the most expensive call you could make. A typical call would probably cost me $60 which I hate like the dickens to pay. So, I missed out. Before I left though, there were some interesting gateways for using 800 numbers through the internet for free or cheap. Still, they don't seem to offer the advantage of putting in codes after the call is dialed. So, do you just write off these costs or do you have a better way to access numbers? Also, regarding components, it seems to me that there are components with cut throat competition (heads and media) and then there are niche players that hold dominant market share and reasonable margins. They benefit from unit growth no matter the pricing pressure the manufacturers face. That was a good reason to buy Innovex, but things have become more complicated. Do you think there are any others who fall into this group that might be worth looking into? Now, I'll start reading these links you gave. Looking forward to see LK's pitch. Regards, Mark

To: Stitch who wrote (3021)	4/24/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Hi Stitch, "Scotch dulls my hand/eye coordination." Apart from the wonderful taste, why else do we drink it? It is 9:32PM HERE IN Germany where I currently reside, and I have a bottle of Glen Farclas at my side. This scotch, which I have discovered relatively late in life, really is the "dogs bollocks" (excuse my use of British slang, but it really is something else): I find early in the morning at the weekends to be my most constructive times for thought. Weekday late evenings are ideal for scotch..... Enjoy the wonderful insight that the blurred coordination between the hand, the eye and the mind brings. Do you also have the problem of reconstructing it the next day too???? Alan

To: Stitch who wrote (3021)	4/24/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: Alan Hume	Respond to of 9256

Hi Stitch "Components" "Most of you on the thread know that I am very bearish on them. I still believe that overcapacity in components exceeds that of the DD makers." This is true of all industries. The dog sneezes, and the flee on the end of his tail dies of double pnumonia. With each step back from the whip hand, the worse the whip lash gets. In an extreme (price) recessive market as we are now in, the component manufacture hurts the most. Look at the semi market as an example. After the component manufacturer is the sub-system and then the system suppliers (suspension and HDD manufacturers respectively): The dog has sneezed well and trueley, and some of those fleas are going to die REgards Alan

To: Stitch who wrote (3021)	4/25/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

>Now I am just gonna sit back, put on my catchers mitt, pour a scotch, and wait for Lawrence's comments. I am expecting them to come in low, fast, and hard. I hope they come soon. Scotch dulls my hand/eye coordination. When I play drunken baseball, I tend to pitch low, fast, hard, and hit you right in a sensitive spot. Slightly shorter than a year ago, I bought my first shares of QNTM. Here they were, coming out of a painful restructuring, leading in areal density, squeezing >8% operating margins on desktop drives, with DLT growing at triple digits, and expectations of improving fundamentals as far as the eye can see. My notes as of 5/21/97 showed that they were trading at a forward PE of 7.2. The price of the stock? 18.75. Draw your own conclusions about what I think of industry valuations now. That's not to say I don't have investment ideas in this sector; I do. But they're sophisticated, hard to explain, and haven't been implemented personally. None of them involve just going long a particular stock, as I know some of you nabob lemmings <g> are wont to do. On the other hand, y'all already know where I've socked away my investment money. Any more advice, and I'll have to charge ya. Remember, you get what you pay for, this advice and a quarter will get you a cup of water, etc., etc. standard disclaimer: Heeding anything I say has been known to cause headache, blindness, and jock itch.

To: Stitch who wrote (3021)	4/25/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Re: DDSD; Bottoms; Predictions I second your kudos to the thread. It has been and continues to be one of the best on SI. You said: I now believe we have seen the lows for the DD stocks. I've got to respond to that. <g> 1. I bought a WD 4.3GB UDMA disk for $135. That's 3.1 cents per meg. We're on track for 2 cents/meg by year end, although I'd be the FIRST person to moan about the pitfalls of simple extrapolation. Let's think about the conditions necessary to bring about a 2 cent environment: a) Continued overcapacity at the drivemakers and their suppliers b) Continued high inventory levels c) Continued climbing of the production learning curve for the new density points If you think these are all true going forward, then the drivemakers could walk the plank yet again. Overcapacity is determined by demand levels. I still have not thought of, nor seen a convincing for an application that will provide the necessary demand stimulus for the DD industry to move into a shortage condition, which is necessary for economic rents that provide fat profits and rapid share price appreciation. My long winded way of saying the sector is still screwed. <g> God bless, PX