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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (17271)	4/25/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: Byram	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

We will have to see what monday brings..... But we know (don't know) how the market reacts to news...regardless of real values, etc.... This article could cause that instability - even though it would be out in the future (If anything actually materializes) By Steven Swindells ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Powerful oil states in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may cut supplies to the industrialized world in another attempt to lift prices from their lowest level in nine years. OPEC President and UAE Petroleum and Minerals Resources Minister Obeid bin Saif al-Nasseri said on Saturday that the 11-member cartel would be willing to curb exports when ministers meet in June if other global producers were cooperative. "If the oil price stays where it is now there will be a lot of talk about further cuts and we don't rule out any possibility. If it is necessary, I think this can happen," Nasseri told Reuters in an interview at his offices. World benchmark Brent for June delivery closed in London on Friday at $13.90 a barrel, compared with more than $20 last year, slashing revenues of OPEC states which rely on petrodollars for around 80 percent of government income. Oil prices have stagnated despite a ground-breaking deal in Riyadh last month between OPEC and non-OPEC producers that aimed to shave some two percent from world supplies. OPEC ministers agreed at an emergency session last month to contribute a cut of 1.245 million barrels per day (bpd) to the so-called Riyadh pact, its first output cut in a decade. Despite the cuts, prices have remained capped by surplus supply, faltering demand in Asia because of the region's economic crisis, increased flows from Iraq under the United Nations oil-for-food deal and warmer than expected weather in the northern hemisphere. "The fair price we would look for...it should be above $20...Although the price has come up a little bit since the Riyadh pact, the price is still low," Nasseri said. Nasseri's comments echoed remarks by Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Naimi, who has said the group would be willing to consider further cuts if necessary at the June 24 meeting in Vienna. Nasseri stressed that OPEC would swallow further reductions only if there was "cooperation and understanding" from non-OPEC states. He said talks between both groups were continuing. "The cut depends on the oil price and also an understanding between the two groups. "We feel that the responsibility of the oil prices does not rely only on OPEC members...The non-OPEC countries have also a responsibility and interest in seeing the oil price a little bit higher," the OPEC president said. Nasseri said non-OPEC Syria was one of the countries that would be cooperative. Syria was not among the countries that signed up to the original Riyadh pact. "I think now we are in a new era of cooperation between OPEC member countries and non-OPEC," said Nasseri, who has day-to-day control over the UAE's 2.3 million barrels of daily oil production. Nasseri said it was unclear what volume needed to be cut from the market, but he said reductions should be made on a pro-rata basis. OPEC states -- which account for some 40 percent of world supplies -- were committed to carrying out the cuts under the Riyadh pact but it was still too early to say what volume of crude had actually been removed from the market.

To: bearshark who wrote (17271)	4/25/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Byram	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

So....IMO I may be making a mountain out of the molehill.....and I am NOT saying this is the BK....although I do think that we are on the forward edge of some down days....But:::::::::: 1) The Blue chip trend in DOWN - IMO 2) Fed threatening to tighten if Asia Flu doesn't slow us 3) CNBC is saying Down (Don't laugh -they may be amatuers to educated traders but the masses buy/sell accordingly - I can state indicators of this) 4) Moneymanagers telling folks to withdraw 40% - 50% of portfolios (CNBC) 5) Many are over-extended into the market - Leads to irrational selling - My opinion 6) "Threat" of $20 oil by OPEC TA and market data are most valuable in making educated trades - but we all should be aware that news, news events, public opinion has direct influence in the market. Obviously usually we can't "guess" the real news - But we should make allowances for it - and hopefully be ready to act on it....... GREAT trading to all....... Byram

To: bearshark who wrote (17271)	4/25/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 94695

shark haven't looked at the oex, but know the transports and the utilities, which are leading the market down. utilities are breaking off h&s and transports look to do the same soon, probably this week. I'm thinking higher oil prices for summer driving season and whatever OPEC or Saddam has cooked up. good places to short the market. I think banks are joining them and may be the best short term short These are all leading indicators of where the market will eventually follow. From the looks of Disney last week we are in a process of distribution that will be going on for the next month. Watch HP next week for the same pump and dump. bwdik, bb Wisdom for the day: The end of a matter is better than its beginning, and patience is better than pride. Ecclesiastes 7:8