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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Byram who wrote (17272)	4/25/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

There are a number of issues that are forming and worth considering. Some that come to mind include 1. Oil producing countrys' regaining experience at working together to control oil prices. 2. Wage inflation creeping into the economy. 3. Growth in monetary aggregates. 4. Gross speculation in garbage stocks. 5. Hesitancy of the Fed to act in hope that someone else will do its job. The future will play-out and become history. However, I seem to have been here before.

To: Byram who wrote (17272)	4/26/1998 2:10:00 AM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Interesting comments regarding OPEC and oil pricing. Is that 40% aspect stable, rising or shrinking over time ? Hard to conceive how suppliers could forecast price increases approximating 50% in the face of severe financial deflation in Asia rolling outward towards other countries, compounded by Japan's multi-year recession and lackluster efforts at rekindling its fires, plus the reduced consumption of the passing mild winter season here in US, plus the impending threat of alternative sources. GM is starting a billboard campaign here in Silicon Valley for electric cars - possibly due to mandated State required vehicle mix, not to mention things like the unreported inflation putting a real squeeze on discretionary spending, plus governments propensity to tax more over time and recently raising taxes at the pump yet again, if my fact benumbed mind has it right, you get the point. I don't think their dreams are going to be reality. Would be interesting to see the percentage of non-OPEC over time though. Also, why isn't Syrian oil considered OPEC ? Maybe a more revealing metric would be non-MiddleEastern oil, anybody ? PS: To Bill or anyone who cares, my charts say no BK till the fall and maybe not even then. I expect a higher DOW by then too, of course.