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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (17277)	4/25/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, just an observation, last year from the April 1997 lows to August 5 highs the market moved up around 30% (apx. 733 to 962 SPX). Since October 97 to the most recent high the market moved about the same amount of 30% (from apx. 870 to 1032 SPX). After correcting during Aug 97 the market started to go to new high SPX 985 or so or 2% above previous high only to swiftly tank by the end of October. Based on those aproximation the reflex rally if there will be any may carry the market to 1150, which is a number floating around E-Wavers, and is close to your 9400 (9600) on the DJIA. I will anticipate that all participants will be prepared for the "explosive summer rally" only to be dissapointed as in 1996. The dipster will be burned so badly that the market will drag the economy down as the wealth effect starts to evaporate. Buy this week Business Week, htere are two interesting articles about the future of commerce and also stock trading. As to the former, I anticipate very low pricing power for most businesses as a result. Also on PBS there was last night a interesting article about America's middle class diminishing as a result of sacrity of adequate $50 to $60K jobs, and the effect of NAFTA and AL Chainsaw approach on a variety of companies and jobs. Sorry to bring so many fundamentals into the picture but they will actually influence the market. Watch unemployement number a slowdown in Job creation will kill this market!! Jobs are exported en-masse to SE Asia, India Mexico etc. so, son as SE Asia will stabilise or recover, the $ will slide, inflation will rise and already Japan showed us the way <ggg> BWDIK Haim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (17277)	4/25/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill ; Ok . but I'm on the record..I went full cash early last Monday having made my last buys the Friday before, I went 1/2 short Friday..will be 100% by Monday eve..no matter which way she goes..I will let you know when I come out and go long. My only hang up to some extent was micro analyzing..and not staying with some of my longs longer, other than that I have not really missed any calls since Feb 1st, not one. Yes I did miss 1, but only one and I was out of it in less than three hours, for a small loss but reversed my position and had that back by the next morning..If you go back to when I first went in SPY at 992, had I just held her till April 3rd I would have saved my self a lot of effort..My cpq play was the best one of the lot.. but I ducked out to soon..but I told you that story <G> check out any of my plays..PCU..DAY..ATML..CRUS..WDC calls, Road, AFWY, MDEA, APM , xcit puts ( one win, one break even hedge) all posted as I did them not after the fact.. Well I did dump out of PLSS at a 1/8th loss but that I had since I don't know when it just wasn't moving and I was worried it might get took down when the market Dumps. So it's past time for me to miss one..but my equitiy accounts are up over 30% since Feb1st..so I can afford to miss this a little.. Jim